Steve Garcia vs. David Onama Odds
| Garcia Odds | -135 |
| Onama Odds | +114 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-125/-105) |
| Location | UFC Apex, Las Vegas |
| Bout Time | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC Vegas 110 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Vegas 110 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Steve Garcia vs. David Onama prediction for UFC Vegas 110on Saturday, November 1, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
On Saturday, the UFC returns to the APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada, for a 13-fight card, featuring an important bout in the Featherweight division between No. 12 contender Steve "Mean Machine" Garcia and No. 13-ranked David Onama.
Both men enter their first career main event or five-round fight. Garcia is currently riding a six-fight winning streak with an 8-2 promotional record, including seven wins by knockout or technical knockout. Onama is on a four-fight winning streak with a 6-2 promotional record; however, his past three wins have each come by decision.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC Vegas 110 Main Event on Saturday and use those factors to bet on these Featherweights. They're expected to make their cage walks at approximately 9:45 p.m. ET (6:45 p.m. PT) on Saturday.
Here's my Garcia vs. Onama pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Garcia | Onama | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 18-5 | 14-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 6:02 | 12:06 |
| Height | 6'0" | 5'11" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 75" | 74" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 5/22/1992 | 6/07/1994 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.18 | 5.24 |
| SS Accuracy | 48% | 50% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.20 | 4.73 |
| SS Defense | 57% | 52% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.90 | 1.08 |
| TD Acc | 40% | 30% |
| TD Def | 88% | 52% |
| Submission Avg | 0.5 | 0.5 |
Steve Garcia is the bigger man (1" taller, 2" reach advantage) in a matchup of large 145-pound fighters, and he has proven the more efficient striker – outlanding opponents by 4.1 strikes per minute at distance, compared to just 0.5 for Onama, thanks to superior striking defense (57% vs. 52%).
Garcia owns the best career win of the pair – his recent victory over Calvin Kattar, where he held Kattar to just 21% strike accuracy, was an impressive performance.
Both men can wrestle, but Onama is slightly more proactive in pursuing takedowns (2.2 vs. 1.6 per five minutes at distance) and has shown the ability to get on top of opponents and control them. In contrast, Garcia has been held on the bottom and lost the first round in separate fights against Shayilan Nuerdanbieke and Mel Costa, before rallying to finish both in round two. As a result, while both men can land takedowns, I'd give Onama the top-time advantage in this fight (46% vs. 29% control rate), which immediately makes his plus-money pricetag all the more intriguing.
Both men carry significant power for Featherweight, and neither fighter is exceptionally durable; Garcia has lost twice by Round 1 knockout, while Onama has been knocked down or wobbled several times in the UFC, without going out himself. Still, Onama has shown far better recoverability after getting hurt, using his wrestling to work his way back into the fight.
I prefer his training situation – working out of Factory X Muay Thai in Colorado, in a room with Youssef Zalal, Isaac Dulgarian, Jonathan Martinez, and Chris Gutierrez, whereas Garcia is at the formerly renowned Jackson Wink MMA, whose fighters – aside from Garcia and Aaron Pico – have moved mainly beyond UFC relevance. Jackson Wink was once considered one of the top gyms in the sport – home to Jon Jones, Frank Mir, Carlos Condit, Diego Sanchez, and Tim Kennedy, among others – but has fallen off significantly as fighters have increasingly congregated in Arizona, California, Florida, and Nevada.
Still, both Garcia and Onama train at about 5,000 feet of elevation, so while each is staring down the possibility of championship rounds for the first time in their respective careers, I don't expect the added time to be an issue for either fighter.
I do expect a fast start between the pair. Still, if neither falls early in a high-volume first or second round, they could settle into a more moderate-paced, technical kickboxing match, where they each mix in an occasional takedown to keep the other honest, and with Onama likely having more success at either getting Garcia down or shoving him up against the fence, in the smaller confines of the APEX.
Combined, these fighters have only seen the scorecards in 12 of their 39 professional bouts (30.7%) and 7 of 18 UFC bouts (38.9%), and this fight is heavily juiced to end inside the distance on Saturday. Still, the featherweight average for three-round fights (47% decision) and five-round fights (56% decision) suggests that those lines are likely over-juiced, even after making an 8-10% adjustment for APEX fights, as opposed to bouts in the full 30-foot octagon.
Steve Garcia vs. David Onama Pick, Prediction
I projected Steve Garcia as a slight favorite (51.6%, -107 implied odds) in this matchup. As a result, I project underdog value on David Onama, who I would play at +115 (48.4% implied) or better, at a 2% edge compared to my projection (46.4%).
Moreover, I project this bout to reach a decision around 24% of the time (+311 implied odds), compared to odds as high as +500 (16.7% implied), and, as I mentioned above, a divisional average nearer to 40% (+150 implied) after adjusting for the smaller APEX cage. You can play the Over 1.5 rounds at juice, and/or take the Over 2.5 Rounds at plus money, and/or consider ladder all the way up to the distance or decision prop down to +350.
I also project a correlated edge on Onama to win by decision (projected +589, listed +1100)—which you can play straight or include on round-robin tickets.
Sean's Pick: David Onama (+120 at ESPNBet) | Over 1.5 Rounds (-125 at ESPNBet) | Fight Goes to Decision (+460 at FanDuel)
