Tofiq Musayev vs. Myktybek Orolbai Odds, Prediction
| Musayev Odds | +130 |
| Orolbai Odds | -155 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 Rounds (-260/+195) |
| Location | Baku Crystal Hall | Baku, Azerbaijan |
| Bout Time | 4:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC Balu odds via DraftKings as of Friday. Bet on UFC Baku with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out my Tofiq Musayev vs. Myktybek Orolbai predictions, picks and odds for UFC Baku on Saturday, June 21.
The UFC made another high-level signing in Tofiq Musayev, a Rizin and Bellator vet who is looking to finish his career in the world's biggest promotion. Recent acquisitions from other organizations have had a tough time transitioning to the UFC, but Musayev has a chance to change that. Greeting him is Myktybek Orolbai, who is 2-1 in the UFC.
Here's my Musayev vs. Orolbai prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Musayev | Orolbai | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 22-5 | 13-2-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:04 | |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'10" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 69" | 74" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 12/15/1989 | 2/10/1998 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.42 | |
| SS Accuracy | 48% | |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.39 | |
| SS Defense | 49% | |
| Take Down Avg | 5.36 | |
| TD Acc | 43% | |
| TD Def | 40% | |
| Submission Avg | 0.4 |
Tofiq Musayev is best known for his Rizin lightweight tournament win on New Year's Eve 2019.
That night, he knocked out Johnny Case before picking up a unanimous decision over Patricky Pitbull, the brother of recent UFC transplant Patricio.
He also had a brief stint in Bellator, going 1-1 before returning to Rizin for two more wins in 2023. That was the last time the now 35-year-old competed, so he has both ring rust and UFC debut jitters to contend with in Baku.
Musayev is typically an aggressive striker, with 18 of his 22 pro wins coming via knockout, and the majority of those in the first round. He tried to switch gears in his last Bellator fight against Alexander Shabily, looking to wait out his opponent and counterstrike.
Perhaps not coincidentally that was also his last loss. The fight ended in a bit of controversy, as Musayev ate a kick to the sternum that traveled down to the cup, and the referee ruled it a legal kick and Musayev deemed the loser by TKO.
Even still, the fight was at best tied going into that moment, as Musayev struggled to get anything going.
He returned to his more aggressive style for his fights in Rizin, marching forward with strikes and using his wrestling defensively. That likely led to his signing in the UFC and booking against an all-action fighter like Myktybek Orolbai.
Orolbai had his eight-fight winning streak snapped at UFC 308, dropping a close split decision to Mateusz Rebecki. That was the UFC 308 fight of the night, with Orolbai surviving a knockdown and tons of damage against the hyper-aggressive Rebecki while still turning in a competitive fight.
In many ways that was a similar stylistic matchup for Orolbai, as Rebecki was the more aggressive fighter and Orolbai looked to pick his shots. However, Rebecki's grappling is at a much higher level than Musayev's.
Orolbai had controlled his previous UFC fights with takedowns but struggled to land them against the multiple-time European BJJ champion.
While Musayev has made strides in the grappling department since early in his pro career, three of his five career losses have come via submission. If he's unable to hurt Orolbai early, that grappling will certainly be tested. That's fairly likely, since Orolbai has never been finished as a pro.
Musayev vs. Orolbai Prediction
A lot is working against Tofiq Musayev in this fight.
The combination of inactivity and making the leap to the UFC is a tough proposition. Most of the fighters to make the leap from other promotions in recent years have struggled, with Patchy Mix, Patricio Pitbull, and Kai Asakura all dropping their UFC debuts.
That's especially concerning for fighters like Musayev (and Pitbull) who are well past their prime when they join the larger promotion. At 35, we've almost certainly seen the best version of Musayev we ever will.
Conversely, Orolbai is just 27, with his prime still in front of him. His grappling and durability make him a tough matchup for Musayev, so I'm taking Orolabai's moneyline.
The best line is -160 at Caesars.
Billy's Pick: Myktybek Orolbai -160 (Caesars)
