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Saturday UFC 255 Odds, Pick & Prediction: Back Katlyn Chookagian to Outlast Cynthia Calvillo (Nov. 21)

Credit:

Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: Katlyn Chookagian.

  • Top-five women's flyweights Katlyn Chookagian and Cynthia Calvillo face off on Saturday's main card at UFC 255.
  • A decisive win for either fighter could vault them into contender status in the division. So where is the value?
  • Sean Zerillo previews the odds and matchup, including his favorite bet in the fight.

Katlyn Chookagian vs. Cynthia Calvillo Odds

Chookagian odds
+215 [BET NOW]
Calvillo odds
-264 [BET NOW]
Over/Under
2.5 (-358/+280) [BET NOW]
Venue
UFC APEX, Las Vegas
Time
Saturday, 10:30 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPN PPV

Odds as of Saturday morning and via BetMGM. Get an INSTANT $500 deposit match at BetMGM today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


The No. 2-ranked woman in the Flyweight division, Katlyn Chookagian, looks to get back into the win column against No. 4-ranked Cynthia Calvillo Saturday at UFC 255.

Chookagian is in here fourth fight this year and third since the pandemic shut down the sport, but she’s just 1-2 over that span. On the flip side, Calvillo hasn’t lost since 2017. Her only blemish over that span was a majority draw against Marina Rodriguez last year.

A win here for Chookagian or Calvillo would go a long way to securing a shot at the Valentina Shevchenko and the women’s Flyweight title belt.

Below I break preview the matchup and odds for the UFC 255 bout. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.

Tale of the Tape

Chookagian Calvillo
Record 14-4 9-1-1
Avg. Fight Time 13:43 13:22
Height 5’9″ 5’4″
Weight (pounds) 125 lbs. 125 lbs.
Reach (inches) 68″ 64″
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Date of birth 12/28/88 7/13/87
Sig Strikes Per Min 4.18 4.21
SS Accuracy 35% 44%
SS Absorbed Per Min 4.25 3.37
SS Defense 62% 66%
Take Down Avg 0.3 1.97
TD Acc 15% 46%
TD Def 48% 69%
Submission Avg 0.5 1.3

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Katlyn Chookagian vs. Cynthia Calvillo Betting Pick

Calvillo (5-foot-4, 64-reach) proved her mettle over five rounds in her return to Flyweight against Jessica Eye (5-foot-6, 66-inch reach), who owns a win over and is likely a tougher overall test than Chookagian.

The cut to 125 helped to preserve and manage Calvillo’s gas tank better than in her previous fights, and she’s going to be a difficult out in this division moving forward, particularly in 15-minute contests.

“Blonde Fighter” (5-foot-9, 68-reach) will have an even more pronounced size advantage against Calvillo, but her takedown defense (48%), will be tested early and often, and Calvillo (46% takedown accuracy, 1.97 landed per 15 minutes) should be able to win this matchup with control time unless Chookagian can consistently scramble back to her feet.

I show value on this fight to go the distance (projected 87%) but I would only play the distance prop to win a half unit up to -334 (implied 77%), and I have a small play on Chookagian by decision at +275 (implied 26.6%), a narrower edge relative to my projection at +232 (implied 30%).

Picks: Katlyn Chookagian wins by Decision (+300) | Calvillo/Chookagian goes the Distance (-323)

[Bet UFC 255 at BetMGM and get a $500 INSTANT deposit match]
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