UFC 276 PrizePicks Player Prop Bets: 5 Plays, Including Jim Miller and Israel Adesanya
Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC fighter Jim Miller.
- This weekend's UFC 276 card is loaded with awesome fights — the perfect spot to play PrizePicks props.
- Billy Ward details where he's seeing value on five fighters, including Middleweight champion Israel Adesanya.
- Find his analysis and picks below.
UFC 276 features two title fights, including Israel “The Last Stylebender” Adesanya vs. Jared Cannonier, and the third fight in the Alexander Volkanovski-Max Holloway trilogy.
For those looking to get some action in, but prefer player props — or don’t live in a legal betting state — PrizePicks is the way to go. They have a full set of lines up for UFC 276.
My favorite parlay is below, along with some additional plays to stretch those odds a bit further.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
UFC 276 PrizePicks Parlay
Israel Adesanya Significant Strikes: Under 80.5
Adesanya has fought six times since becoming middleweight champion, five title fights and a failed attempt to become double champ at light heavyweight. Just once in those six fights has he reached the 80 significant strikes mark, with 96 in his decision win over Marvin Vettori.
Adesanya has shown a willingness to stay on the outside and control fights with his footwork, particularly against opponents with power. That’s something Jared Cannonier has in a big way. Six of his eight UFC wins have came via knockout.
That should keep Adesanya towards a more conservative game play, which is one way this one could go under. Cannonier could (and should) look to make this a dirty fight as well, controlling the champion along the cage and possibly securing takedowns if he can.
There’s also the possibility of a stoppage, which is -120 or so in the betting markets. It’s highly unlikely Adesanya goes over 80 strikes unless this one goes the distance — or very close.
This is a perfect example of a line that needs a lot of things to go right to hit the over, with any one of them capable of forcing it under.
Jim Miller Fight Time: Under 7.5 minutes
Jim Miller is taking on Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone on the prelims — barring another fight day cancellation for Cerrone. These two have a combined 76 UFC fights between them, with Miller having the all time record at 39.
Cerrone is a notoriously slow starter, who’s chin has failed him in recent years. He’s winless in his last six, with four of those coming via knockout, and three of those in round one.
Miller on the other hand is an extremely fast starter. The 38 year old secured each of his last six wins in under seven minutes, dating back to 2017. His last two have been knockout wins, a bad sign for Cerrone with his fading durability.
It could also go the other way, as Cerrone has the second-most finishes all time in UFC history. Those have leaned towards coming a bit later in the fight, but Cerrone certainly has the ability to end things early. He knocked out Miller in just over eight minutes in their first meeting back in 2014.
Both guys have stoppage ability on the feet and on the ground, with Miller having very questionable cardio and Cerrone seeming to have no chin left. That’s a recipe for a quick fight.
- Sean Strickland Under 2.0 Takedowns: While I’d love to get the extra half takedown on this line, I still like the under at 2.0. Strickland averages 1.16 takedowns per 15 minutes, and is just crazy enough to try to stand and bang with a former Glory kickboxing champion. He’s also the much smaller fighter as a former welterweight, and may struggle to get Alex Pereira to the mat even if he wants to.
- Sean O’Malley Over 100.5 Significant Strikes: O’Malley averages a ridiculous 8.26 significant strikes per minute in his UFC career, meaning he needs about 12 minutes to hit this mark. He has a huge reach and speed edge over Pedro Munhoz, who’s a bit of a punching bag with over six significant strikes absorbed per minute. He’s a durable punching bag though, having never been stopped in his professional career. Pivoting to O’Malley’s fantasy score over at 112.5 is viable too, if you think he gets it done early.
- Alexander Volkanovski Over 2.0 Takedowns: Volkanovski was credited with three takedowns in his last fight with Holloway, despite not attempting any until the third round. The fight went far better for him once he started though, so I’m anticipating him starting early this time. While he may not be able to keep Holloway down, he should be able to get him there.