We've got one of the best fight cards of the year this weekend with UFC 322. The card is headlined by a pair of dominant champions looking to claim titles in a new weight class, with Islam Makhachev moving up to welterweight to take on Jack Della Maddalena, and Weili Zhang moving up to flyweight to challenge Valentina Shevchenko.
The 14-fight card starts at 6:00 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with the five-fight main card airing on ESPN+ PPV at 10:00 p.m.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC 322 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings except where otherwise noted. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC 322 Predictions & Luck Ratings
Islam Makhachev (-270) vs. Jack Della Maddalena (+220)
My initial read on this line is that the price is a bit too wide.
This is the first title defense for Jack Della Maddalena at 170lbs, but he won the title by defeating a stylistically similar opponent in Belal Muhammad. He's also being coached by famed grappler Craig Jones, who was the architect of the counter-grappling strategy that nearly led Alexander Volkanovski to an upset victory over Islam Makhachev at 155lbs. Plus, JDM is two weight classes bigger than Volkanovski and eight years younger.
On the other hand, outside of a few rounds in the first Volkanovski fight and a flash knockout in 2015, Makhachev has been nearly flawless in his UFC career. He finished four of his five title wins at lightweight, and has been able to take down every opponent he's fought since 2019 — save Volkanovski the second time, who he knocked out in the first round.
Plus, while Makhachev and Muhammad share a similar approach to fighting, Makhachev is clearly at a higher level of skill.
All things considered, if I had to choose now, I would take Maddalena at the odds, but I suspect we'll get a better price later in the week.
Verdict: Fairly Valued
Valentina Shevchenko (-130) vs. Zhang Weili (+110)
The other title fight on the card also features a dominant champion moving up in an attempt to win a second title, but oddsmakers view this as a much closer fight. Both Valentina Shevchenko and Zhang Weili are long-serving champions in their respective weight divisions, though each had brief interruptions to their title reigns. As such, this is the most deserving "champ vs. champ" fight the UFC could make.
Unlike in the main event, I was surprised at how close this line is, though. Both women owe much of their success to their physical/athletic gifts over their competition — which is typically not an attribute that travels up a weight class well. While the women's divisions are separated by just 10 lbs, that's proportionally a huge jump from 115 to 125 lbs.
That can be overcome in a striking match, but Shevchenko has relied more and more on her grappling as her career progresses, with 18 takedowns in her last four fights. While Zhang has solid takedown defense, that might not hold up as well against a bigger and stronger opponent.
Shevchenko opened at plus money but has already caught a ton of early action, so if you want the best line, it's probably wise to act fast. I'll be betting to win a half unit for the time being in case the line swings back the other way at some point, but that feels somewhat unlikely. The widely available -130 line is the best available at the time of writing.
Verdict: Shevchenko Undervalued
Matheus Camilo (-174) vs. Viacheslav Borschev (+136)
Lines aren't widely available for the late-addition lightweight bout between Viacheslav "Slava Claus" Borschev and Matheus Camilo on the UFC 322 prelims.
However, I'm rushing to get money down on Camilo where lines are posted. Or, more accurately, to get money down against Borschev. He's 1-3 in his last four fights, with his only win coming via split decision over a fighter who went 0-3 in the UFC. He's also a fairly one-dimensional brawler whose chin seems to have failed him, and has always been vulnerable to grapplers.
Camilo is a 24-year-old prospect who lost his short-notice UFC debut, but picked up a pair of takedowns along the way. Slava Claus is 1-1-5 in fights in which his opponent landed at least one takedown, making this a tough matchup.
Early posting books had Camilo as a slight underdog, but the only domestically available line as of this writing is -174 at FanDuel. I'd still take that, and expect he'll close somewhere close to, if not beyond -200.
Verdict: Camilo Undervalued
