Read our UFC Atlanta predictions for the Saturday, June 14 event live from the State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia. The preliminary card airs on ESPN+ starting at 7:00 p.m. Eastern Time, with the main card starting at 10:00 ET.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 13-fight lineup for their UFC best bets and identified their four favorite picks for the card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
UFC Atlanta Moneyline Projections
UFC Atlanta Prop Projections
UFC Atlanta Best Bets
Sean Zerillo: Jose Ochoa vs. Cody Durden
Senior Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:25 p.m. ET
I projected Jose Ochoa as a -270 favorite in his sophomore outing against Cody Durden, following a debut loss against undefeated prospect Lone'er Kavanagh over in Macau. You can bet his moneyline at odds of up to -250.
Ochoa was competitive against Kavanagh, just barely getting edged out on total strikes in two of the three rounds. The Peruvian is well-trained and well-rounded, from Chute Box Diego Lima (the same gym as Charles Oliveira, Daniel Willycat Santos, and Marco Tulio, among others) while working with fellow UFC flyweights Allan Nascimento and Felipe dos Santos.
He's nine years younger than Durden, the better striker, and offers significantly better cardio in the back half of the fight.
Durden is a fast starter and is typically competitive in or able to win the first round of his fights outright. Still, he does tend to fade deeper into his matchups, and while he has shown a ton of heart to survive to the final bell, Ochoa should be the much fresher man in the second half of this fight.
As a result, while you should bet Ochoa pre-fight, I'd also target him live after Round 1 at a better number than his pre-fight moneyline.
Additionally, you can bet Ochoa to win inside the distance (projected +149, listed +165) or include that prop on round-robin tickets.
Durden is a popular public underdog this week, with the crowd (across multiple publicly available data samples) picking him to win the fight more than 60% of the time, compared to implied odds of 38.5%.
The Pick: Jose Ochoa (-185 at Caesars)
Billy Ward: Andre Petroski vs. Edmen Shahbazyan
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:45 p.m. ET
This is one of the most binary fights we've had in a long time, both in a stylistic and temporal sense.
Edmen Shahbazyan is a quick finisher who typically fades in extended fights. He's 1-3 (with the win via split decision) in fights that hit the third round, with five of his seven UFC wins coming in the first round.
He's also primarily a striker, with a 1-4 record (the win being that same split decision) in fights in which his opponent lands at least one takedown.
That's a sharp contrast from Petroski, a former D1 wrestler and BJJ black belt who has — perhaps unfairly — gotten a reputation for being a decision merchant. Petroski's last three wins have all involved the judges, though in two of the three, his opponent was mostly to blame. Both Dyland Budka and Josh Fremd spent the bulk of their losses to Petroski hanging on for dear life from the bottom, rather than taking a chance on an escape.
Either way, Petroski is the exact style of fighter that his historically given Shahbazyan trouble. Unless "Golden Boy" can put Petroski down early, the Pennsylvania native will almost certainly land a takedown.
From there, it's hard to see Petroski losing the fight. Shahbazyan takes enough chances on the ground that Petroski will have opportunities for submissions or ground and pound, and Shahbazyan's questionable cardio means the later rounds will almost certainly favor Petroski.
While my official pick is on Andre Petroski's moneyline at +152 via FanDuel, keep your eyes open for live betting opportunities on Petroski. Sean and I discussed the chances of getting a better line on our latest UFC Betting preview:
The Pick: Andre Petroski +152 (FanDuel)
