Valter Walker vs. Louie Sutherland Odds
| Walker Odds | -395 |
| Sutherland Odds | +310 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-160/+124) |
| Location | Etihad Arena, Dubai UAE |
| Bout Time | 12:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 321 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 321 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Valter Walker vs. Louie Sutherland prediction for UFC 321on Saturday, October 25, with my betting preview and breakdown.
The heavyweight-centric UFC 321 card features four total bouts in the division, including this preliminary contest between British newcomer Louie Sutherland and "The Clean Monster" Vaalter Walker. Walker has endeared himself to the fan base with three straight first-round heel hook victories, but has yet to show an ability to do much else. Will that be enough against Sutherland, or will the heel hook streak come to an end?
Here's my Walker vs. Sutherland pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Walker | Sutherland | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 14-1 | 10-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 5:32 | |
| Height | 6'6" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 265 lbs. | 264 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 78" | 76" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 12/14/1997 | 2/8/1994 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 1.9 | |
| SS Accuracy | 49% | |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.89 | |
| SS Defense | 42% | |
| Take Down Avg | 5.43 | |
| TD Acc | 66% | |
| TD Def | 0 | |
| Submission Avg | 2.2 |
It's hard to pin this down exactly, since the early days of the UFC were mostly open-weight fights, but to the best of my knowledge, there have been six heel hook victories in the 32-year history of the UFC heavyweight division. Three of those have been by Valter Walker in the last 14 months (UFC 321 headline Ciryl Gane also has one).
While leg locks generally and heel hooks specifically have become all the rage in submission grappling, they're still not often seen in MMA, and when they are, it's typically in the lighter weight classes. To perform the submission, you have to attack one of your opponent's legs with both of your arms, leaving no way to defend yourself from strikes, particularly when attacking via the more common leg-entanglement route from bottom position.
You can see why that's especially risky for heavyweights, since most fighters in the division have the power to put people out with one shot, so the risk of leaving yourself exposed to roll for the position is extremely high, especially if your opponent is aware of the possibility.
While this is an over-simplification, there are two primary ways to attack heel hooks: sitting back from inside of your opponent's guard, or entangling their legs from the bottom, typically while they're standing over you. The former, crucially, relies on securing a takedown in the first place, as well as opening your opponent's guard. Opening the guard is fairly trivial in MMA since most fighters don't use closed guards, but the first step isn't always easy.
The leg entanglement method is far trickier in MMA, as fighters are under no obligation to stay engaged with a grounded opponent and can simply back up, obligating them to return to their feet, unlike in submission grappling, where the top fighter bears the responsibility to engage.
Walker has two heel hooks where he sat back from top position following takedowns. Those came against poor wrestlers Don'Tale Mayes and Junior Tafa. Louie Sutherland is a much better defensive grappler than either of those two, and also moves well enough on his feet that even attempting takedowns will likely be a challenge.
Walker did finish Kennedy Nzechukwu with a heel hook entry from the bottom. He was credited with a takedown but effectively pulled guard, sliding off Nzechukwu's back to the ground, where he then entered into a standing 50/50 position, which Nzechukwu was unprepared to defend.
While Sutherland is stepping into this fight on short notice after both he and Walker had other matchups scrapped, he should have had enough time to prepare for hyper-specific positions like that, which aren't extraordinarily hard to escape from if you can anticipate them. Simply denying the clinch and defending takedowns eliminates 90%+ of the danger, and the risk will drop significantly after Round 1 when both fighters get slippery.
I've watched some tape on the massive Sutherland, who weighed in at 265.9 lbs for his last listed weigh-in. The former Rugby player moves surprisingly well on his feet, with good, quick kicks and a patient striking style. He's fairly technically sound — as opposed to a brawler like Tafa — and I suspect he'll be able to pick Walker apart as long as this one stays standing.
In some ways, this reminds me of Walker's debut against Lukasz Brezki, who outstruck Walker 58 to 25 on the feet between Walker takedowns. Sutherland is a similarly skilled striker, but a better athlete and 30+ lbs heavier (assuming Sutherland cuts weight to make the heavyweight limit).
Walker vs. Sutherland Pick, Prediction
I've already tracked a bet on Sutherland early this week, shortly after the lines opened.
I was surprised to see the line continue to move towards Walker, since he's effectively a one-trick pony and the word has to be out about his likeliest path to a win. Since my original bet on Sutherland was for just a half unit, I'll be doubling down with another half-unit on the underdog, but waiting until Saturday morning in case we continue to get better odds.
The best currently available line is +310 at ESPN Bet, but it wouldn't be shocking if the line movement continued in that direction.
Billy's Pick: Louie Sutherland +310 (ESPN Bet)
