Read our UFC Perth predictions for the Saturday, September 27 event live from the RAC Arena in Perth, Western Australia. The entire card airs on ESPN+ starting at 7:00 p.m. ET, with the main card officially starting at 10:00 p.m.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 14-fight lineup for their UFC best bets and identified their favorite picks for the card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
UFC Perth Moneyline Projections
UFC Perth Prop Projections
Michelle Montague vs. Luana Carolina
Billy Ward, Staff Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:15 p.m. ET
Michelle Montague is one of the more intriguing prospects to enter the women's division in a long time. She's been signed directly to the UFC rather than earn her shot off the Contender Series, thanks to her extensive combat sports background.
Montague is a multiple-time amateur MMA World Champion who represented New Zealand in freestyle wrestling at the Commonwealth Games. She's also competed in high-level grappling matches on occasion, especially before transitioning to MMA full time.
Her background is evident in her record, which stands at 6-0 with six submissions, all via rear naked choke. She hasn't racked up that many takedowns in her PFL bouts, but only because she hasn't needed to, as her opponents rarely find their way back to their feet. That's especially impressive considering she's previously fought at lightweight and featherweight, and will be a massive bantamweight assuming she's able to make the weight.
She'll look especially big and strong against Luana Carolina, who has previously fought at flyweight but is being asked to move up due to her struggles on the scales. Carolina is something of a "tweener" who is too big for 125 but not a true bantamweight. That can be overcome on the feet, but it will be a big problem if she's stuck under the larger Montague. Which she's likely to be, as Carolina has been taken down at least once in seven straight fights.
Everything is set up perfectly for the first Kiwi woman to grace the Octagon to make a successful debut, which is why Montague is such a heavy favorite. However, we can cut that favorite by laying her -3.5 point spread at DraftKings, which is priced at -125. That bet cashes with a Montague finish or dominant decision, and while I think the former is somewhat likely I prefer the safety of the point spread bet.
The Pick: Montague -3.5 -125 (DraftKings)
Jack Jenkins vs. Ramon Taveras
Sean Zerillo, Senior Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:45 p.m. ET
Despite moving up from Bantamweight to Featherweight, Ramon Taveras is the bigger man than Jack Jenkins (1" taller, 2" reach advantage), and he should have the quicker and sharper hands in boxing range.
Jenkins is the more well-rounded fighter and superior kickboxer, who will look to chop away at Taveras from range with low kicks to slow his opponent's forward pressure.
Both men are susceptible to capable grapplers (Jenkins has three submission losses), but neither is dangerous enough offensively to consistently threaten to end the fight on the mat. However, I do expect Jenkins to win minutes and potentially eat up some clock from top position.
Taveras carries the bigger power of the pair, but Jenkins has shown excellent head strike durability; his only TKO loss came via injury when posting in a scramble against Chepe Mariscal.
And while Taveras has been knocked out twice in the first round – including his first attempt on Contender Series – he should handle damage better after cutting less weight to get to 145, rather than 135, and Jenkins' knockout upside is tied to attritional damage as opposed to single-strike power.
I projected this fight to go to decision nearly 65% of the time (-179 implied odds) and would bet the distance or decision prop to -165.
The Pick: Fight Goes to Decision (-125 at BetRivers)
