Read our UFC Seattle predictions for this live event on Saturday from the Climate Pledge Arena in Washington. We're back to our usual 5:00 p.m. ET (2 p.m. PT) start time for the prelims of the 13-fight card.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 13-fight lineup to identify their UFC best bets and favorite picks for the card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
UFC Seattle Moneyline Projections
UFC Seattle Prop Projections
Adrian Yañez vs. Ricky Simon
Sean Zerillo, Senior Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 5:45 p.m.
Adrian Yañez has had an odd run in the UFC – starting 6-0 with five knockout wins, before going 1-3 against higher-level competition, with a pair of finish losses.
He's the slightly bigger man than Ricky Simon (1" taller, 1" reach advantage) and the much more technical striker (+0.0 to -1.8 strike differential per minute at distance), but Simon is the more proactive wrestler (5.3 takedown attempts per five minutes at distance, 37% accuracy) and a reliable control grappler (91% control rate in clinch and grappling positions).
Yañez (80% takedown defense) has only been taken down by Daniel Marcos (ceded 3:23 control time), but Simon is arguably the best wrestler he has ever faced. Still, Simon doesn't land a ton of damage with those takedowns, and Yañez is a clear favorite (-175) in the finish-only market. Despite his crisp boxing, Yañez comes from a grappling base, and even though we haven't seen him on the mat much in the UFC, he's competent enough to survive on bottom.
More often than not, this fight plays out competitively, where Simon lands takedowns and generates control time in every round until Yañez scrambles up, then has the better striking output between the two, and then the process repeats. Judges may ultimately have to weigh Simon's control grappling against the damage Yañez landed, and even in Seattle (where Simon is a local fighter), I'd expect the judges to side with the superior striker.
My model set Yañez as a +118 underdog (45.8% implied), and I would bet him down to +130, at roughly a two percent edge compared to my projected line.
Moreover, I project an edge on the fight to reach a decision (projected -178, listed -160) and a correlated edge for Yañez to win by decision (projected +271, listed +390), but considering I give him more finish equity than Simon, I'd either play Yañez on the moneyline by itself, or combine the fight goes to decision prop, with a separate sprinkle on his odds to win by decision/
Pick: Adrian Yañez +145 (DraftKings)
Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer
Billy Ward, Staff Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:45 p.m.
I started this week genuinely torn on this fight. On the one hand, Adesanya is the far more accomplished and skilled fighter than Pyfer. Adesanya is almost certainly the second-best middleweight of all time, while Pyfer doesn't project as someone who will ever challenge for the title.
The flip side is that Izzy is just 1-4 over his last five, with three straight losses, including two knockouts. Pyfer is clearly still on the come-up, with a 6-1 record in the UFC and three straight wins.
However, this fight being five rounds makes me feel much better about the former champion's chances. This will be his 14th (!) consecutive five-round fight, and he's never had much of an issue with cardio. His smooth, striking style lends itself well to extended fights, and he's not burning himself out by loading up on punches or by grappling heavily.
Conversely, Pyfer's two best options are to load up on big right hands or force the grappling issue. He's a big, powerful middleweight but not especially technical, and it's hard to see him consistently winning minutes beyond the first couple of rounds. That means the best — and perhaps only — shot for Pyfer here is catching Adesanya early. In Pyfer's only previous five-rounder, he won the first two rounds and dropped the final three on every scorecard to Jack Hermansson.
With that dynamic, my actual favorite bet here is Adesanya live sometime around the end of the first round. Even if we're forced to pay a steeper price, we've limited the risk of an early loss and gathered some information about "The Last Stylebender's" current form. From a prefight standpoint, my favorite option is a DraftKings SGP with Adesanya and over 9.5 minutes (essentially two rounds), which gets the price down to a solid -110.
Of course, if you want a juicier payout, you could up the number of minutes, as I think most of Adesanya's win condition comes late. If you really want to shoot for the moon, adding Adesanya to win by KO to the equation gets you all the way to +425, and would pay out with an Izzy knockout in any of the final three frames.
Pick: Adesanya & Over 9.5 minutes SGP -110 (DraftKings)
