Read our UFC Vegas 106 predictions for the Saturday, May 17, event at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The entire card airs on ESPN+ starting at 4:00 p.m. Eastern, with the main card officially kicking off at 7:00.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 12-fight lineup for their UFC best bets and identified their two favorite picks for the card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
UFC Vegas 106 Moneyline Projections
UFC Vegas 106 Prop Projections
UFC Vegas 106 Best Bets
Billy Ward: Connor Matthews vs. Yadier DelValle
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:45 p.m. ET
Yaider DelValle appeared on the Contender Series in 2024, and I actually picked against him in that fight.
As I noted at the time, I wasn't down on DelValle's skills necessarily. However, I had concerns about his cardio that proved unfounded, with DelValle building down the stretch in that three round fight.
I also didn't love his tendency to jump guillotines, putting himself on his back needlessly. That's not much of a concern against Matthews, as DelValle is a BJJ black belt and national-level Judo competitor, while Matthews is just a purple belt.
Getting DelValle to the ground is Matthews' best chance, but that's going to be a tall order against the much bigger and more athletic DelValle. YDV is a former lightweight who looks massive at 145, which should make takedowns difficult even in the smaller cage.
DelValle throws heavy shots from his southpaw stance, both with his hands and feet. Matthews has been knocked out in both of his UFC fights, with the most recent knockout loss coming in February of this year.
It's safe to say his chin is a major question mark at this point, especially given the quick return from his last loss. With DelValle also having a solid ground game, though, I want to be in a position to profit with any finish from the Cuban.
It's also surprising to see plus-money on the inside the distance line for DelValle considering he's a -550 or so moneyline favorite. It would be hard to cover that wide of a price in a decision, making his finish prop the much better bet. I'd take this as long as it remains even money or better.
The Pick: Yadier DelValle By KO/TKO or Submission +110 (FanDuel)
Sean Zerillo: Jared Gordon vs. Thiago Moises
Senior Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:30 p.m. ET
I projected Jared Gordon as a 61% favorite in Saturday's matchup against Thiago Moises. I would bet his moneyline up to about -145, at just under a two percent edge compared to my projected line.
Moises is a trendy underdog selection this week. The public data I incorporate into my model has him winning the fight 61% of the time, on average. Yet Gordon has moved from an opening line of +102 (49.5% implied) to as high as -135 (57.5% implied) as of writing.
I view Gordon as the superior boxer and wrestler. He out-lands opponents by 1.4 strikes per minute at distance, compared to a -1.3 differential for Moises at range. He also attempts 3.6 takedowns per five minutes and controls 75% of his grappling time in the cage.
Moises is the superior jiu-jitsu practitioner but gets discouraged when he can't get takedowns and is too content to accept the bottom position against superior wrestlers (50% control rate). I favor Gordon on striking output and control time across a 15-minute fight, that is favored to reach a decision (north of 70% implied)
Moises is arguably the more durable fighter and the better athlete, but he doesn't have fight-altering power; he's likelier to win with a pair of backtakes in separate rounds than one clean knockout punch.
Sitll, Gordon is a competent grappler – and I prefer his physicality in the scrambles. He's overdue for positive judging variance, too, after dropping decision losses to Nasrat Haqparat (14 of 16 media cards and 84% of fans had the bout for Gordon) and Paddy Pimblett (23 of 24 media cards and 90% of fans; 11 of the 24 media cards scored it 30-27 for Gordon).
The Pick: Jared Gordon (-120 at FanDuel)
