Read our UFC Vegas 107 predictions for the Saturday, May 31, event at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The entire card airs on ESPN+ starting at 6:30 p.m. Eastern, with the main card officially kicking off at 9:00.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 11-fight lineup for their UFC best bets and identified their two favorite picks for the card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
UFC Vegas 107 Moneyline Projections
UFC Vegas 107 Prop Projections
UFC Vegas 107 Best Bets
Billy Ward: Allan Nascimento vs. Jafel Filho
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:45 p.m. ET
I’ve been big on Filho since his UFC debut. He stepped in on short notice to take on the undefeated Mohamed Mokaev, and had Mokaev dead to rights with a deep kneebar in the third round. Mokaev survived and went on to finish off the gassed Filho afterwards, but it was an incredibly impressive performance.
Especially considering the circumstances. Mokaev might be the actual best flyweight in the world but was released from the UFC due to out of cage issues. Filho could've beat him with slightly more gas in the tank.
Since then, “Pastor” has won two straight fights by first-round submission and defeated #3 flyweight Amir Albazi in a grappling match. Nascimento is also 2-1 following in the UFC with a close loss in his debut, but hasn’t competed in more than two years due to a variety of injuries and illnesses.
Nascimento is primarily a grappler as well, and has a career 16% takedown defense in the UFC. That's likely more due to him being willing to accept takedowns than unable to stop them, but that makes this an extremely bad stylistic matchup with Filho.
Given their identical 2-1 UFC records and styles, this fight should be a pick 'em at worst. When you factor in the 2+ year layoff for Nascimento, I'd argue that Filho should be favored.
Most books have adjusted their prices based on Nascimento missing weight by 1.5 pounds, but fortunately FanDuel is still offering +130 on Filho. If that moves as well, I'd still take this bet down to even money.
The Pick: Jafel Filho (+130 at FanDuel)
Sean Zerillo: Macy Chiasson vs. Ketlen Vieira
Senior Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:45 p.m. ET
The odds have flipped for this women's featherweight bout after Ketlen Vieira opened as a -120 favorite, with Macy Chiasson as an even-money underdog.
I projected Chiasson as a near 59% favorite (-142 implied odds) in this fight and would bet her moneyline up to around -130, at roughly a two percent edge compared to my projected line.
Chiasson is the taller and longer fighter (3" taller, 4" reach advantage), the faster athlete, and the more efficient striker at range (+0.2 to -0.7 strike differential per minute at distance).
Vieira may have a path to victory through her offensive wrestling and grappling. Still, Chiasson has controlled a higher percentage of grappling positions in the UFC (70% vs. 59% for Vieira) and has shown improved confidence in her own offensive grappling in recent fights.
Chiasson was ahead on the scorecards against Irene Aldana before an awkward, third-round TKO loss via liver kick from the bottom; otherwise, she would be on a four-fight winning streak, with wins in six of seven, with her only loss since 2020 against former champion Raquel Pennington (who recently lost a close split against Julianna Peña).
Viera has fought against a higher caliber of competition – and proven herself over five rounds against former champions Holly Holm and Miesha Tate.
Still, Vieira is often involved in close and competitive decisions, and I strongly favor Chiasson's output and activity for winning minutes in this contest, with both women likely to mix in takedowns at points throughout the fight.
The Pick: Macy Chiasson (-120 at FanDuel)
