Read our UFC predictions for the Saturday, August 9 event live from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The preliminary card airs on ESPN+ starting at 4:30 p.m. ET, with the main card on ESPN at 8:00 p.m. ET.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 12-fight lineup for their UFC best bets and identified their three favorite picks for the card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
UFC Vegas 109 Moneyline Projections
UFC Vegas 109 Prop Projections
UFC Vegas 109 Best Bets
Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Eryk Anders
Billy Ward, Staff Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:15 p.m. ET
Eryk Anders is 2-1 in his last three fights. He's also suffered a knockdown in each of those bouts, but somewhat improbably managed to avoid being finished, with the lone loss coming via decision.
He suffered those knockdowns against Chris Weidman, Jamie Pickett, and Marc-Andre Barriault — all of whom are considerably less dangerous strikers than his opponent this time, Christian Leroy Duncan.
"CLD" has three knockouts in six UFC fights, including all but one of his wins. He's a long, explosive, former basketball player who throws accurate shots at a fairly high pace, typically finishing opponents with a flurry of strikes rather than one massive knockout shot. With Ander' rapidly fading chin at age 38, it probably won't take too many clean shots from Duncan to end his night, and Duncan flurries well enough to prevent a comeback if he does drop Anders.
On the other side, Anders has a massive grappling edge. The former Cleveland Browns practice squad linebacker averages nearly two takedowns per fight and regularly competes in professional grappling.
Duncan's grappling game is relatively lackluster, and he's been largely matched up against opponents who won't challenge him with takedowns. If Anders gets this one to the ground, he'll be striking aggressively from the top and could easily find a finish via ground and pound.
I'm taking this fight to end inside the distance at +125 via ESPN Bet. The implied odds of around 45%, significantly lower than the divisional average of nearly 60%. Plus, with this one being in the smaller Apex cage, finishes are more likely than in the full-sized Octagon.
Under 2.5 (+145) or fight ends via KO (+140) are also viable options, but not enough of a price premium to justify the additional risk.
The Pick: Fight Ends Inside the Distance +125 (ESPN Bet)
Jean Matsumoto vs. Miles Johns
Sean Zerillo, Senior Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:45 p.m. ET
While Jean Matsumoto has been in a trio of high-volume decisions in three of his four UFC bouts – including his contract-earning performance on the contender series – he has faced opponents who can throw in combination, including Rob Font and Brad Katona, and match his output.
Matsumoto — who lands more than double the number of distance strikes per minute as Miles Johns (8.7 vs. 4.0) should have a significant work rate edge on Saturday, against an opponent who is both six years older and has shown a tendency to fade in the second half of his fights.
Matsumoto is a well-rounded, high-level prospect – and he'll force Johns to fight at an uncomfortably high pace throughout this contest. While Johns comes from a wrestling base, Matsumoto is likelier to initiate the offensive grappling (16.5 vs. 6.6 takedown attempts per 15 minutes at distance), and he's the more dangerous finisher on the mat.
I'd expect a more competitive first round before Matsumoto takes over down the stretch; you can place a same-game parlay (SGP) with Matsumoto and the Over 1.5 Rounds (-165 at DraftKings) up to -200, but I also like the SGP option at FanDuel, with Matsumoto's moneyline and his odds to land the most significant strikes in the fight (-187).
Unlike Matsumoto's recent opponents, Johns doesn't throw in combination; instead, he chucks big overhands looking for a knockdown or knockout; the path to him landing more significant strikes but losing against Matsumoto is extremely narrow. He'd likely need extended top control before a come-from-behind finish in the third round.
To that point, and given the cardio dynamic in this matchup, look for a better live line on Matsumoto after Round 1, and consider his odds to win in Round 2 (+1000 at BallyBet) or Round 3 (+1300 at Fanatics) pre-fight in addition to those SGP options.
The Pick: SGP: Jean Matsumoto & Over 1.5 Rounds (-165 at DraftKings) | SGP: Jean Matsumoto ML & Matsumoto Lands More Significant Strikes (-187 at FanDuel) | Matsumoto wins in Round 2 (+1000 at BallyBet) | Matsumoto wins in Round 3 (+1300 at Fanatics)
