Read for a Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista prediction for UFC 321 on Saturday, October 25, with my betting pick and prediction.
Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista Odds
| Nurmagomedov Odds | -600 |
| Bautista Odds | +450 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-300 / +210) |
| Location | Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi |
| Bout Time | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 321 odds as of Saturday and via bet365. Bet on UFC 321 with our bet365 promo code. | |
Here's my Nurmagomedov vs. Bautista pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Nurmagomedov | Bautista | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 18-1-0 | 16-2-0 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:48 | 9:43 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'9" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 69" | 69" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Date of birth | 1/3/1996 | 7/1/1993 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.38 | 6.13 |
| SS Accuracy | 57 | 49% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.15 | 4.45 |
| SS Defense | 60% | 55% |
| Take Down Avg | 3.26 | 1.67 |
| TD Acc | 39% | 33% |
| TD Def | 78% | 67% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 0.8 |
Nurmagomedov vs. Bautista Pick, Prediction
If he can deny the takedowns in this matchup, Mario Bautista will undoubtedly look like a value bet against Umar Nurmagomedov in the latter's fight since his loss to Merab Dvalishvili for 135-pound gold.
Bautista is the more efficient striker (+2.0 to +1.6 per minute) than Nurmagomedov, maintains a higher pace (7.5 to 4.7 landed per minute) and has shown that he can mix in offensive takedowns Still, I do believe that he is a better offensive wrestler than he is defensively (68% takedown defense) and that Umar (4.4 attempts per five minutes; 91% vs. 70% control) will win a close and competitive fight here with superior grappling.
I give Umar a slight edge to win by decision (projected -166, listed -150). Still, I initially leaned toward Bautista on the point spread (+5.5, +100) in what I expect to be a relatively close and competitive matchup.
The most significant edge may be betting the fight to reach a decision (projected -285, listed -225), which you can consider straight at -257 or as a parlay piece at -277.
Projection: Nurmagomedov (84.4%)
Sean's Pick: Fight Goes to Decision (bet to -257 or parlay to -277)
