Viacheslav Borshchev vs. Matheus Camilo Odds
| Borshchev Odds | +150 |
| Camilo Odds | -180 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+124/-160) |
| Location | Madison Square Garden, New York City, NY |
| Bout Time | 6:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 322 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 322 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Viacheslav Borshchev vs. Matheus Camilo prediction for UFC 322on Saturday, November 15, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Matheus Camilo came into his UFC debut this May with a fair amount of hype. The 24-year-old Brazilian was a direct signing by the organization, which didn't go through the Ultimate Fighter or Contender Series, normally a strong sign for a young fighter. He nearly lived up to the hype but was ultimately unsuccessful against Gabe Green. Now he gets a second chance to make a strong impression against another veteran, Viacheslav "Slava Claus" Borshchev.
Here's my Borshchev vs. Camilo pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Borshchev | Camilo | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 8-6-1 | 9-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:05 | 8:43 |
| Height | 5'11" | 5'10" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 69" | 69" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 1/8/1992 | 1/2/2001 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.22 | 1.49 |
| SS Accuracy | 54% | 48% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.73 | 1.38 |
| SS Defense | 57% | 55% |
| Take Down Avg | 0 | 3.44 |
| TD Acc | 0% | 66% |
| TD Def | 42% | 0% |
| Submission Avg | 0.1 | 1.7 |
Through the first eight or so minutes of his UFC debut, everything was going according to plan for Matheus Camilo. "Jaguar" won a relatively slow-paced first round over Gabe Green, landing just 12 strikes but applying pressure on the feet.
He showcased his patient striking technique, pressuring forward without much activity, but remaining defensively responsible and throwing with intent when he saw opportunities. That was clearly just a means to an end, with Camilo eventually bringing the fight to the canvas, where he ended Round 1 in top position. We saw more of the same in Round 2, with Camilo picking up a quick takedown and passing to mount, where he seemingly had the win within his grasp. That's where the critical mistake happened.
Rather than do damage from the top and ride out the round in control, Camilo set up a (admittedly beautiful) mounted triangle on Green before rolling to his back in an attempt to finish the choke. The veteran Green first tried to slam his way out of the choke before eventually freeing his head, passing the legs of Camilo to the side, and jumping on the exhausted Brazilian's back for a rear-naked choke.
The entire sequence was a classic example of why UFC debuts are rough. Even if the pressure of the situation isn't a problem, stepping up to UFC-level competition requires an adjustment for a fighter's risk-reward calculations. On the regional scene, Camilo's grappling level was enough above most of his opponents that he likely finishes that triangle. In the UFC, it was an unnecessary and low-percentage risk in a fight he was winning.
The nice thing about his sophomore matchup against Slava Claus is that a similar approach might actually work. The Russian lightweight is 1-3 across his last four UFC appearances, with two of those losses coming via submission. To make matters worse, that win was via split decision.
Borshchev is an exciting striker who punched his ticket to the UFC with a knockout win on the Contender Series. However, his lack of grappling ability has, and remains, a major Achilles' heel. While he's made improvements in his takedown defense since surrendering 20 total in two fights in 2022, his UFC record is now 1-6 when his opponent has been able to land even a single takedown.
While he'll be the more active fighter on the feet, Borshchev is also the less powerful and durable striker, so even if he's able to keep the fight standing, things might not work out for him. While I'd expect him to win minutes in striking exchanges, he's been dropped twice since he's last landed a knockdown of his own, as the years of wild exchanges seem to have caught up to the brawler.
Borshchev vs. Camilo Pick, Prediction
Matheus Camilo was the very first bet I made for this card, when the line opened at -174 on FanDuel for this somewhat last-minute booking. At the time, I bet to win just half of a unit, as I didn't want to risk too much before digging into the tape.
After re-familiarizing myself with both men's games, I only feel more strongly about the bet. FanDuel is now offering -164 on "Jaguar" despite his line moving the other direction in most shops, so I'll gladly take that line to push my total exposure up to winning a full unit.
With this line moving around throughout the week, the easiest way to find the best current odds is using Playbook. Just click this link to instantly pull up a bet slip with the current odds for a variety of books.
Billy's Pick: Matheus Camilo -164 (FanDuel)
