Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland Prediction, Picks, Odds for UFC 316

Check out my Luque vs. Holland prediction for UFC 316 on Saturday, June 7.

Here's my Luque vs. Holland prediction for tonight.

Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland Odds

Luque vs. Holland Pick

Vicente Luque won his last fight against Themba as a +145 underdog; a fight that he would have been -400 (maybe even -900) in just a couple of years ago.

Still, Luque has suffered from a brain bleed in the past and looked like a slower, less durable version of himself following his brutal knockout loss against Geoff Neal.

He entered the Gorimbo fight as an underdog because, just before that, he turtled awkwardly and accepted a TKO finish on his back against Joaquin Buckley, seemingly out of nowhere.

Luque's durability remains a significant concern, given his extensive experience in numerous wars throughout his career.

And I expect him to struggle with the size and physicality of Kevin Holland – a very different fighter at Welterweight than he is at Middleweight. Holland carries significantly more power and offers better takedown defense at 170 pounds, and he'll make the most out of his length (4" taller, 6" reach advantage) at striking distance.

While Luque could have a path via grappling, as my colleague Billy Ward pointed out, all of his submission wins have come when opponents have tried to ake him down – via anaconda or D'arce – and Holland will look to keep this fight standing – where he's the far mroe efficient striker (+1.5 to +0.2 strike differential per minute).

I would consider Holland as a parlay piece up to -300 (projected -315), but I prefer his odds to win by KO/TKO (projected +127, listed +155) or even by Round 1 KO/TKO (+480) if Luque is entirely shot.

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Luque vs. Holland Predictions

Picks:

• Kevin Holland wins by KO/TKO (+150, 0.25u) at BallyBet (bet to +135)