Virna Jandiroba vs. Mackenzie Dern Prediction, Pick, Odds for UFC 321 (Saturday, October 25)

Virna Jandiroba vs. Mackenzie Dern Odds

Check out the Virna Jandiroba vs. Mackenzie Dern prediction for UFC 321on Saturday, October 25, with my betting preview and breakdown.

Zhang Weili vacated the strawweight title in an attempt to move up to 125lbs and become a double-champion, leaving a vacuum at the top of the 115lbs division. The first title fight of the post-Zhang era features the ever-popular Mackenzie Dern taking on Virna Jandiroba, who likely would've been given the next title shot against Zhang had she stayed home at strawweight. This matchup is a rematch of a close 2020 bout that was won by Dern, but will history repeat itself?

Here's my Jandiroba vs. Dern pick and prediction.

Tale of the Tape

Given that both women have fought at least seven times since their 2020 meeting, it's important not to draw too many conclusions from that bout. While it was scored a unanimous decision win for Dern, it was 29-28 on all three judges' scorecards, and there's a reasonable case to be made that Jandiroba deserved to win the third round.

The bad news for the underdog is that she's also about five years older, with rematch data typically favoring the younger fighter as well as the previous winner. However, that's at least somewhat due to the younger fighter making the bigger improvements in the time between fights, which I'm not sure is actually the case here.

Jandiroba has gone 6-1 since losing to Dern, with her only loss coming in another fight that could've gone her way or been scored a draw. Dern is just 5-4 in that time frame, though she has a submission win over the last woman to beat Jandiroba, Amanda Ribas. Of course, Jandiroba has beaten three of the women who defeated Dern, so the MMA math here becomes endlessly recursive.

Both women in this matchup are primarily strikers, with Dern growing up on the mats under the tutelage of her father, a well-known BJJ black belt. She competed extensively in grappling competition before transitioning to MMA, winning gold medals in the "Big Five" IBJJF gi events as well as multiple nogi grappling world titles, including at ADCC. Jandiroba also got her start through BJJ and holds black belts in both BJJ and Judo. However, most of her competitive career has been spent in MMA, not submission grappling, with jiu-jitsu serving as a means to an end rather than the end goal.

That probably explains their divergent grappling approaches. Jandiroba is all about takedowns and control from top position. She averages just under 2.5 takedowns per 15 minutes in her UFC career despite facing most of the division's top grapplers, and has spent just over 35% of her fight time in top position. While she'll take a submission opportunity should it arise, she's also more than happy to win rounds via control and damage.

On the other hand, Dern is an aggressive submission hunter who occasionally struggles to get the fight to the canvas. She averages less than a takedown per 15 minutes with a dreadful 17% takedown accuracy rate, and further hurts her cause by giving up control position to chase submissions. That can lead to some highlight reel submissions against lesser grapplers, but it often leads to trouble if she can't find the finish against tougher competition.

With Jandiroba's stronger takedown game and ability to avoid being submitted, I expect her to win minutes fairly consistently on the ground. There's a chance that Dern finds a late sub if Jandiroba tires out, but I'd rate both women's cardio fairly evenly, so that's not a major concern.

On the feet is where things get interesting. Dern has been extremely inconsistent as a striker, showing huge improvements at times but looking lost at others. That seems to be related to her work with (or lack thereof) Jason Perillo, with whom she's again training for this fight. At her best, she puts out tons of volume at close range, knowing that most opponents won't step under her punches for a takedown due to her submission threat.

Jandiroba is the more consistent striker — but that's not a compliment. She averages less than two significant strikes per 15 minutes with a 38% accuracy rate, and outside of a knockdown against Ribas, has done very little productive striking work. However, since she's one of the few women likely to be unafraid of Dern's ground game, she can shut down Dern's higher-volume attack by landing takedowns or initiating clinches for Judo throws, in much the way Ribas did against Dern.

Jandiroba vs. Dern Pick, Prediction

At a base level, I view this fight as fairly binary. Not in a stylistic sense, but in terms of which fighter is likely to win rounds versus which one brings more finishing upside.

Jandiroba is clearly the better minute-winner, while Dern has more ways to finish the fight on the ground or on the feet. Unfortunately, that's been baked into the "decision only" and "finish only" moneylines fairly heavily, with both women around -200 odds in their respective likelier method.

The fight is -125 to go the distance, though, and Jandiroba has never been stopped or knocked down in the UFC, while allowing only two official submission attempts against her. All in all, that makes her the better minute winner in a fight that should see the judges — with a plus-money price tag.

Plus, Dern's overwhelming popularity for reasons outside of her fighting ability tends to influence the market towards her, so you could do worse than blindly betting against her in most reasonable matchups, especially if you wait until close to fight time.

The best line on Jandiroba probably comes on Saturday afternoon, but is currently +135 at BetMGM, which is more than enough for a fighter I'd make the slight favorite.

Billy's Pick: Jandiroba +135 (BetMGM)

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