Vitor Petrino vs. Austen Lane Prediction, Pick, Odds for UFC Nashville (Saturday, July 12)

Vitor Petrino vs. Austen Lane Odds, Prediction

Check out the Vitor Petrino vs. Austen Lane prediction for UFC Nashville on Saturday, July 12, with my betting preview and breakdown.

After coming into the UFC as a hot prospect, Vitor Petrino dropped consecutive bouts in the light heavyweight division. Now, he's attempting to save his career by moving up to heavyweight. Oddsmakers suspect he'll be able to do so, installing him as a -700 favorite against Austen Lane. The former NFL player is 1-3 in the UFC and could be on his way out with a loss, making this an important fight for both men.

Here's my Petrino vs. Lane pick and prediction.

Tale of the Tape

It's probably unfair to say that Vitor Petrino was "fraud checked."

While MMA Twitter's favorite phrase could potentially apply, lesser men than he have been submitted by Anthony Smith and knocked out by Dustin Jacoby, two of the better light heavyweights in those respective disciplines.

What is fair to say is that Petrino has serious issues with Fight IQ and confidence.

Petrino is an excellent hammer and looked incredible on the Contender Series and in his early UFC fights. He used his massive athleticism edge to finish three of those four fights, and he had seen the scorecards just before making the UFC leap.

However, against tougher competition, he's looked tentative, eking out a boring decision win over Tyson Pedro before his losses to Smith and Jacoby.

The Smith loss was especially egregious, as Petrino was hurting Smith on the feet before shooting for an ill-advised — and sloppy — takedown that was easily countered by the veteran. I'm willing to give him a pass against Jacoby — Petrino at least tried to take the kickboxer down — but still would've expected him to push the pace more than he did.

Moving up to heavyweight, a division where fighters as skilled as Smith and Jacoby are few and far between, could be just what the doctor ordered for Petrino. He weighed in a few pounds heavier than Lane, and should have the athletic ability to compete with larger men.

I'm somewhat concerned about his cardio, though, at least for the first fight or two in his new division (and body). While the lack of a weight cut helps, Petrino will be competing at least 10 or 15 pounds heavier than in the past, which could take a toll on him down the stretch.

That dynamic might be the only hope for Lane, who isn't especially skilled at any aspect of mixed martial arts. He's big and athletic, and his lone UFC win came against Robelis Despaigne via takedowns and ground control.

Forcing Petrino to carry his weight on the ground would sap that gas tank faster, and Lane has attempted takedowns in each of his last three fights.

That's a marked difference from his early UFC fights, where he hoped his athleticism would carry him through in brawls.

While Petrino is a more than capable grappler in his own right, he was taken down five times by the last true grappler he fought, so that could be a weakness Lane can exploit.

Petrino vs. Lane, Prediction, Odds

Sean Zerillo and I spent some time discussing this fight on our UFC Betting Preview for the card.

He offered a few potential options, including an underdog shot on Lane and the fight to go over the total (or all the way to a decision).

While I agree with both of those takes, there's a better way. Austen Lane's takedown prop is set at just 0.5 at DraftKings, with +250 to the over.

For Lane to have a shot at winning, he almost certainly needs to land a takedown. Additionally, the longer this one stays on the feet, the likelier it is that Petrino puts him away. Lane has been knocked out in all of his losses, and Petrino brings plenty of power.

Therefore, I'm taking the takedown prop at DraftKings for a half unit.

Billy's Pick: Austen Lane Over 0.5 Takedowns +250 (DraftKings)