Viviane Araujo vs. Tracy Cortez Prediction, Odds, Pick for UFC 317 (June 28)

Check out my Araujo vs. Cortez prediction for UFC 317 on Saturday, June 28.

This flyweight matchup features Araujo, a UFC veteran of 12 fights who is 6-5 with the promotion, and Cortez, who’s 11-2 overall and suffered her first UFC lost last year in her last fight against Rose Namajunas.

Here's my Araujo vs. Cortez pick and prediction for tonight.

Araujo vs. Cortez Odds

Araujo vs. Cortez Pick

I typically side with big underdogs in fights heavily juiced to go to decision, which implies that the fight was somewhat competitive to begin with. The Flyweight bout between Tracy Cortez and Viviane Araujo is over 84% implied to go the distance in the betting market.

I align with the GTD market (projected 83%, -476 implied) – these fighters have gone the distance in 17 of their 18 combined UFC bouts – and I also show value on Araujo (projected +154) at +170 or higher; however, I'm slightly concerned by the seven-year age gap between these fighters.

Araujo is the bigger Flyweight (3" reach advantage) and maintains a higher pace on the feet (lands 5.6 to 5 strikes per minute at distance), although Cortez is more efficient (-0.3 to -0.8 differential).

Both shoot a similar rate of takedowns, but Araujo has better takedown defense (80% vs. 61%) of the pair; if she shoots early, I think she can put Cortez on her back.