Check out my Araujo vs. Cortez prediction for UFC 317 on Saturday, June 28.
This flyweight matchup features Araujo, a UFC veteran of 12 fights who is 6-5 with the promotion, and Cortez, who’s 11-2 overall and suffered her first UFC lost last year in her last fight against Rose Namajunas.
Here's my Araujo vs. Cortez pick for tonight.
Viviane Araujo vs. Tracy Cortez Odds
| Araujo Odds | +190 |
| Cortez Odds | -230 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 Rounds (-720 / +450) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena | Las Vegas |
| Bout Time | 8:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 317 odds via DraftKings as of Saturday. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code | |
Araujo vs. Cortez Pick
I typically side with big underdogs in fights heavily juiced to go to decision, which implies that the fight was somewhat competitive to begin with. The Flyweight bout between Tracy Cortez and Viviane Araujo is over 84% implied to go the distance in the betting market.
I align with the GTD market (projected 83%, -476 implied) – these fighters have gone the distance in 17 of their 18 combined UFC bouts – and I also show value on Araujo (projected +154) at +170 or higher; however, I'm slightly concerned by the seven-year age gap between these fighters.
Araujo is the bigger Flyweight (3" reach advantage) and maintains a higher pace on the feet (lands 5.6 to 5 strikes per minute at distance), although Cortez is more efficient (-0.3 to -0.8 differential).
Both shoot a similar rate of takedowns, but Araujo has better takedown defense (80% vs. 61%) of the pair; if she shoots early, I think she can put Cortez on her back.
Araujo is competitive against every opponent early, but tends to fade in Round 3 due to poor cardio. She was able to upset Karine Silva in her last fight, as a +265 underdog, because Silva has similarly questionable cardio.
While Cortez does have the better gas tank, she's not reliable to push a pace against Araujo, particularly coming off of a five-round main event where she had to adjust her style to fit the 25-minute format.
As a result, I'd expect Araujo to remain competitive and sustain her gas tank deeper into the fight with Cortez than she would against other opponents, particularly if she's able to land and consolidate a takedown in the opening round.
In the prop market, I also project an edge on Araujo by decision (projected +221, listed +350). Still, if she reaches the grappling positions that she needs in order to win a decision; she'll likely threaten at least one good submission attempt as well.
Araujo vs. Cortez Predictions
- Viviane Araujo (+210, 0.25u) at Caesars (bet to +170)
