F1 Odds, Picks & Predictions: 3 Early Bets for British Grand Prix (Sunday, July 9)

F1 Odds, Picks & Predictions: 3 Early Bets for British Grand Prix (Sunday, July 9) article feature image

Kym Illman/Getty Images. Pictured: Driver Lewis Hamilton and dog Roscoe arrive at the F1 British Grand Prix

As we start July and inch toward the halfway point in the season, this weekend Formula 1 heads to Silverstone, England, for the F1 British Grand Prix (10 a.m. ET, ESPN2). 

This is one of the classic tracks on the circuit, and it has been hosting F1 World Championship events since the inception of the series in 1950.

The 2022 version of the British Grand Prix was an excellent one. Carlos Sainz took the victory at Silverstone, the first and only one of his career thus far. 

While Ferrari won the race and took the fight to Red Bull a year ago, I don’t see that happening this year. This version of the Ferrari is not suited quite as well for Silverstone in my opinion.

Silverstone is a circuit that features many high-speed corners, requiring a ton of downforce so that drivers can maintain speed through the corners with minimal braking. This is most similar to three other tracks we have seen this year in Australia, Miami and Spain.

While Red Bull is the class of the field right now, there is one team that may be able to give it a test this weekend.

F1 Picks for British Grand Prix

Lewis Hamilton Podium

Outside of Red Bull, Mercedes has potentially been the best car this year at high-speed corners, of which Silverstone has many. The W14 has performed at its peak on these most similar tracks where downforce is key.

The team based in Brackley, England, employs two British drivers and will reportedly be bringing a sizable upgrade package to the circuit this weekend.

At the comparable tracks in Australia, Miami and Spain, Lewis Hamilton has amassed finishes of P2, P6 and P2, respectively. That sixth-place finish came in Miami, where he had issues in qualifying that caused him to start 13th before he rallied toward the front.

George Russell has had similar success at these tracks this year, finishing P18, P4 and P3. The 18th-place finish in Australia came in a race in which Russell qualified second and even led six laps before becoming a victim of both poor strategy and mechanical failure.

While I don’t hate taking a chance on Russell this weekend, I feel more comfortable placing my bet on Hamilton. He is already priced as the top non-Red Bull driver this weekend – but for good reason. 

Lewis has not finished outside of the top three at Silverstone since 2013. Even with his dominant Mercedes of the last decade, this is still one of Hamilton’s stronger tracks. Even at slight minus odds of -105, I still think that there is value to be had with Hamilton at the British Grand Prix.

The Picks: Lewis Hamilton Podium Finish (+100 at bet365)

Nico Hulkenberg vs Valtteri Bottas

Haas is another team that has found success at tracks similar to Silverstone.

In Australia, Nico Hulkenberg had his best finish of the year in seventh place. He also started seventh in Spain and has qualified in the top 10 in each of the last three races.

Valtteri Bottas, on the other hand, has not started better than 12th on the grid this season. He finished 11th, 13th and 19th at the three most comparable tracks to Silverstone, and he outran Hulkenberg in only one of these races.

I think that the Haas will likely fare better than the Alfa Romeo this weekend, and with the run Hulkenberg has been on in qualifying, I like taking him to beat Bottas on Sunday at plus odds.

The Pick: Nico Hulkenberg over Valtteri Bottas (+115 at BetMGM)

Esteban Ocon Points Finish

The downforce of the Alpine has been its main strength this season. We saw this at Monaco when Esteban Ocon put his car on the podium, as well as in Spain when both Ocon and his Alpine teammate Pierre Gasly finished in the top 10 the next week. 

In Australia both Alpine drivers started in the top 11 before getting caught up in an accident together at the end of the race and finishing out of the points.

As previously stated, these two finished eighth and 10th in Spain, as well as eighth and ninth in Miami.

I think that Alpine will once again be able to compete for spots in the back end of the points this weekend. Gasly and Ocon have been relatively equal this season, as evidenced by their odds being fairly similar this week.

The tiebreaker for me is going to be Ocon’s history at this track. Ocon has finished in the points in five of his six races at Silverstone, with his only failure being due to a mechanical issue last season when he was also running in the top 10. 

I believe that Alpine and specifically Ocon have what it takes to put up a strong points finish this weekend in Silverstone.

The Pick: Esteban Ocon Points Finish (-200 at Caesars)

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