F1 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Early Bets for Spanish Grand Prix (Sunday, June 4)

F1 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Early Bets for Spanish Grand Prix (Sunday, June 4) article feature image

Mark Thompson/Getty Images. Pictured: Max Verstappen of the Netherlands and Red Bull Racing

Following last weekend’s race at Monaco, which offered a few surprises, we head to Barcelona for this week’s F1 Spanish Grand Prix. Downforce is heavily important at this track as well – but in a much different way than it was at Monaco.

In Monaco the drivers had to deal with a number of sharp corners to be taken at a slower speed, so being able to make these abrupt turns was the key. For the F1 Spanish GP on Sunday (9 a.m. ET, ESPN), teams will need to have a lot of downforce due to having to take a number of corners at high speeds.

For teams with strength in these slow corners, this becomes neutralized, especially with the removal of the chicane at the end of the circuit. This track now shifts more toward these higher-speed corners than it has in years, making for a much different race.

The great unknown at the top of the grid is Ferrari. They are bringing massive upgrades this weekend, so I have no idea what to expect from their performance. We shall see if these upgrades put them closer to Red Bull or if they even result in any marked improvement to the car’s aerodynamics.

F1 Picks for Spanish Grand Prix

Red Bull Double Podium

To put it simply, as the entire year has been, this is a Red Bull weekend. This track fits Red Bull’s car almost perfectly to its strengths and the setup that they're bringing along. This weekend Red Bull is bringing a high-load rear wing to Barcelona. This means that they will be gaining more grip from aerodynamics in the corners and putting less wear on the tires.

With the new track configuration, they may give up a bit of speed on the straightaways to a team like Ferrari, but I’d expect them to experience less tire degradation than the other frontrunners while they are still able to take these high-speed corners with ease.

This will extend their advantage even further as they will be able to run longer on one set of tires, both improving their overall pace compared to the rest of the field and potentially cutting out a pit stop.

Unless there is an accident, mechanical failure or inclement weather, I don’t see how Red Bull is challenged too closely at the top this weekend. There is a chance of rain this weekend for all of the sessions, so keep that in mind, but I still feel comfortable enough with this bet to go all-in on the Red Bulls this weekend.

The Pick: Red Bull Double Podium (-165 at DraftKings)

Best of the Rest

One of the major headlines following Monaco’s race was the performance of Esteban Ocon and Pierre Gasly. Both drivers finished well within the points; Ocon was even able to put his car on the podium after a great qualifying session.

The books have reacted heavily to this development and have Alpine now priced as the -165 favorite to be the winning team outside of the top four teams (Red Bull, Ferrari, Mercedes, Aston Martin).

While their performance was impressive, I’m not overly confident that their setup will carry over well to the Spanish GP. They excel most in slow corners, which does not suit this track well.

McLaren is also a bit overvalued at +200 as they have one of the cars with the highest drag in F1. This would be ideal for a track with sharper corners, but I think that they could struggle on the faster stretches of the circuit this weekend.

I’m not certain which team will take a step up, but both Alfa Romeo and Haas seem to believe that they will be stronger here than they were a week ago. I like taking fliers on both of these teams to have the racing-winning car outside of the top four teams this weekend.

The Picks: Alfa Romeo Winning Cars Without Top 4 Teams (+1200 at DraftKings) | Haas Racing Winning Cars Without Top 4 Teams (+1800 at DraftKings)

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