F1 Odds, Picks & Predictions: 3 Bets to Make Now for Hungarian Grand Prix (Sunday, July 23)

F1 Odds, Picks & Predictions: 3 Bets to Make Now for Hungarian Grand Prix (Sunday, July 23) article feature image

Kym Illman/Getty Images. Pictured: F1 driver Fernando Alonso of Spain and Aston Martin

This week F1 heads to the Hungarian Grand Prix, where Red Bull is looking to set the record for most consecutive wins in F1 World Championship history.

Between reigning champion Max Verstappen and teammate Sergio Perez, the Red Bulls have dominated every race in 2023 as they head into the Hungarian Grand Prix on Sunday (9 a.m. ET, ESPN).

Last week was one of the closest calls we have seen yet as the two McLaren drivers were able to park both their cars in the top three of qualifying. Lando Norris then led a few laps before ceding the lead back to Max.

Verstappen never did gain a huge advantage, though, maintaining only a modest lead over Norris.

The Hungaroring features many corners with just a few short straights. This race is typically not known for having too many overtaking opportunities.

In contrast to Silverstone, the corners on this track are typically very low speed. Pirelli will be bringing the softest tires they offer to Budapest due to this need for extra grip.

Due to this need for high drag, most teams will be set up most similarly to Monaco. The teams that performed best there should be able to carry that success over to this weekend.

F1 Picks for Hungarian Grand Prix

Fernando Alonso Podium and Qualifying

So what I said about success at Monaco? Yeah, that applies here.

The only one who had any chance of catching Max Verstappen that day was Fernando Alonso. He may have had a chance at winning the whole thing if it weren’t for a questionable pit strategy call when the rain came.

In every race Alonso has run at this track since 2009, he has finished in the points at minimum.

His career in Budapest includes five podiums and a grand prix victory, as well as six other top-five finishes and two poles.

Fernando Alonso's first ever #F1 win ✨

At 22 years and 26 days, he was the youngest Grand Prix winner at the time, and the first from Spain 🇪🇸#HungarianGPpic.twitter.com/Y8OywKvp8V

— Formula 1 (@F1) July 26, 2022

Alonso has the car under him to succeed at this track. The Aston Martin is built well for these low-speed corners. I fully expect him to contend for a podium this weekend to go along with a strong qualifying run.

You’ll want to grab this qualifying bet earlier in the week before it goes away, but Alonso to be the highest qualifier outside of the top three teams is a very good bet to me.  This is priced at -110 but should be much shorter in my opinion.

McLaren will likely struggle more this week, leaving Alpine as Alonso’s only potential competition in qualifying.

The Picks: Fernando Alonso podium finish (+100 at Caesars) | Fernando Alonso fastest qualifier without Mercedes, Red Bull and Ferrari (-110 at DraftKings)

Esteban Ocon Points Finish

It was Esteban Ocon who shocked the world and landed on the podium in Monte Carlo. His Alpine stuck to the track through those low-speed corners as he had an impressive drive, holding off cars that were likely faster behind.

While I have my doubts that he can repeat a podium finish here this weekend, I definitely think that he can contend for a points finish in this car.

At other sportsbooks, Ocon is -160 or shorter to finish in the points. But as of this writing, he is just -143 at Caesars, a 2.7% edge in implied probability by just getting the best number.

McLaren has certainly taken strides in recent weeks, but Alpine should have what it takes to challenge them for a spot in the top 10.

Between Gasly and Ocon, who are priced similarly, I lean toward Ocon after his better success at Monaco.

The Pick: Esteban Ocon Points Finish (-143 at Caesars)

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