NASCAR Phoenix Picks: Best Value Bet for the TicketGuardian 500 at ISM Raceway

NASCAR Phoenix Picks: Best Value Bet for the TicketGuardian 500 at ISM Raceway article feature image

Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: A general view of the start of the Can-Am 500 at ISM Raceway

  • If you're betting Sunday's Phoenix NASCAR race, one driver is offering too much value to pass up.
  • By shopping for the best line and using historical data from ISM Raceway, we pinpoint which driver to bet for the 2019 TicketGuardian 500 (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX).

One of the easiest ways to find value when betting on any sport is to shop for the best line. “Shopping” simply refers to searching for the wager you like at as many sportsbooks as possible, then taking the best possible line or odds available.

In football and basketball, this often means grabbing an extra half-point on the point spread. For example, if you like the Patriots to cover the spread against the Dolphins and most sportsbooks have the line at New England -7, but one book is offering Pats -6.5, you’d want to take the -6.5.

That extra half-point represents “line value” when compared to the rest of the betting market that sits at 7, yet costs you nothing more than simply taking a few minutes to shop for whichever book is offering the best line.

When betting smaller sports like NASCAR — also referred to as “niche markets” — the difference between lines from sportsbook to sportsbook can be even bigger, meaning there’s even more potential value available for the dedicated line shopper.

For today’s TicketGuardian 500 at ISM Raceway, the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas is offering a price on Chase Elliott that’s simply too good to pass up for any value-minded NASCAR bettor.

As of 8:40 a.m. ET, Elliott is available at 20-1 at Westgate. I haven’t seen him anywhere close to that across the rest of the betting market. For example, the MGM casinos have Elliott listed at 8-1.

That’s a ton of value for a driver who has been blazing fast at ISM Raceway over the past two years.

In those four races, only Kyle Busch (4.3) has a better average running position than Elliott’s 5.5. Average running position takes into account where a driver is running on track throughout an entire race and is a better measure of performance than simply using average finish, which measures only the final lap.

Elliott also ranks second in fastest laps run and third in laps led over that span of races.

Elliott has been plenty fast this weekend as well, securing the second position on the starting grid which will provide him with all-important track position and a great pit stall selection for this race.

No matter how you slice it, Elliott should be priced as a top-five betting option today, yet nine drivers have better odds to win the TicketGuardian 500 than him.

The Bet: Chase Elliott (+2000) to win TicketGuardian 500

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