Pacers vs. Thunder Odds & Betting Predictions - June 23, 2025

@wheatonbrando is a genius

Good at 32.5 The Pacers slowed the entire Thunder offense down in Game 6 but now that they have seen it and gotten some film I expect SGA to have a bounce back performance. Game 7s are notoriously lower scoring; however, a lot of that is because the Pace slows down, the physicality intensifies and there’s more halfcourt play, things that align with SGA’s strengths. He’s averaging 30.5 ppg and has only played minutes in the low 40s twice this series. I think we see an uptick and a higher Usage game from SGA.

Final one from Brandon

Absolutely love this bet from @wheatonbrando even with the steam since he posted

Turner has 3-5-2 blocks in pacers wins but ZERO in losses. Struggling all series.

11-11-18 minutes last 3g after 10 total the first 3g. 3 reb in two of those, and in 69% of games this season with 11+ minutes. Series trending smaller again and gee the small ball C, Reb good for all the missed shots in G7, and he plays garbage minutes too so this hits in a blowout also.

Not looking for points or assists over in a gritty defensive G7 but I’ll make an exception for Indiana’s real Finals MVP. TJ is over this in 4/6 finals games and hooked in another, 13/17/15/10/22/18, avg almost 16 and trending up with 23mpg last 2g with Hali bothered by calf injury. Looks good even with the G7 tax.

McConnell has at least 1 steal all but one Finals game. He’s currently tied for the lead with Caruso, who can have monster games but also has two with no steals and seems to be wearing down. TJ minutes trending up, and a dead heat is still a solid payout at +250.

Just 1 reb on 5 chances last game. Minutes down in blowout but so was his rebounding effort level which makes sense with the bad calf. He had 3 outlier big rebounding games this series but 3 others with 1-2-3. Don’t love fading reb in G7 with plenty of missed shots coming but I’ll play an alt (My Way) and skip the median outcome in case they’re just not there. Can always hit if the calf flares up too.

Indy has failed to top 20pts for any scorer 4x in finals, including 2 of 3 wins. Harder to see it for OKC but could be in range just with typical G7 under. Never a bad idea to bet against scoring in a Finals G7, with no team hitting 100 in one since 1988. Under Elias specials.

OKC games this series and all playoffs have swung in a huge way home vs road. Thunder 10-2 at home, led big in the two losses at the buzzer, lowest win by 7, with all but one double digits and half by 26+. Avg margin +21 at home vs -7 road for playoffs. Home team 15-4 in Finals G7, and the home-road split checks out for OKC. Such a young team has played demonstrably better at home, and it's especially important for the defensive energy and the whistle, core to OKC identity. The most reliable prediction in this game is OKC playing with more D intensity and flipping the possessions game back its direction with TOs and oreb. Even if the half court offenses stall both ways, that math swing on possessions should be enough. Usually don't get blowouts in Finals G7, but over a third of OKC wins by 18+ all season and 10 wins by 30+ including playoff ens if 30-32-43-51. Nibble some alts in case OKC blows it open with a couple TO-fueled runs. Better alts based on history may be Pacers TT unders. No team has scored 100 in Finals G7 since 1988 with these games grinding it out. OKC held each previous playoff opponent <100 twice and <90 once. Pacers 7-3-1 to TT under as road dog in playoffs, OKC opp 10-1-1 to TT under. Great way to invest in G7 under + OKC defense, especially since Indy could even win and still hit the TT unders at 100-95-90.

OKC games this series and all playoffs have swung in a huge way home vs road. Thunder 10-2 at home, led big in the two losses at the buzzer, lowest win by 7, with all but one double digits and half by 26+. Avg margin +21 at home vs -7 road for playoffs. Home team 15-4 in Finals G7, and the home-road split checks out for OKC. Such a young team has played demonstrably better at home, and it's especially important for the defensive energy and the whistle, core to OKC identity. The most reliable prediction in this game is OKC playing with more D intensity and flipping the possessions game back its direction with TOs and oreb. Even if the half court offenses stall both ways, that math swing on possessions should be enough. Usually don't get blowouts in Finals G7, but over a third of OKC wins by 18+ all season and 10 wins by 30+ including playoff ens if 30-32-43-51. Nibble some alts in case OKC blows it open with a couple TO-fueled runs. Better alts based on history may be Pacers TT unders. No team has scored 100 in Finals G7 since 1988 with these games grinding it out. OKC held each previous playoff opponent <100 twice and <90 once. Pacers 7-3-1 to TT under as road dog in playoffs, OKC opp 10-1-1 to TT under. Great way to invest in G7 under + OKC defense, especially since Indy could even win and still hit the TT unders at 100-95-90.

OKC games this series and all playoffs have swung in a huge way home vs road. Thunder 10-2 at home, led big in the two losses at the buzzer, lowest win by 7, with all but one double digits and half by 26+. Avg margin +21 at home vs -7 road for playoffs. Home team 15-4 in Finals G7, and the home-road split checks out for OKC. Such a young team has played demonstrably better at home, and it's especially important for the defensive energy and the whistle, core to OKC identity. The most reliable prediction in this game is OKC playing with more D intensity and flipping the possessions game back its direction with TOs and oreb. Even if the half court offenses stall both ways, that math swing on possessions should be enough. Usually don't get blowouts in Finals G7, but over a third of OKC wins by 18+ all season and 10 wins by 30+ including playoff ens if 30-32-43-51. Nibble some alts in case OKC blows it open with a couple TO-fueled runs. Better alts based on history may be Pacers TT unders. No team has scored 100 in Finals G7 since 1988 with these games grinding it out. OKC held each previous playoff opponent <100 twice and <90 once. Pacers 7-3-1 to TT under as road dog in playoffs, OKC opp 10-1-1 to TT under. Great way to invest in G7 under + OKC defense, especially since Indy could even win and still hit the TT unders at 100-95-90.

OKC games this series and all playoffs have swung in a huge way home vs road. Thunder 10-2 at home, led big in the two losses at the buzzer, lowest win by 7, with all but one double digits and half by 26+. Avg margin +21 at home vs -7 road for playoffs. Home team 15-4 in Finals G7, and the home-road split checks out for OKC. Such a young team has played demonstrably better at home, and it's especially important for the defensive energy and the whistle, core to OKC identity. The most reliable prediction in this game is OKC playing with more D intensity and flipping the possessions game back its direction with TOs and oreb. Even if the half court offenses stall both ways, that math swing on possessions should be enough. Usually don't get blowouts in Finals G7, but over a third of OKC wins by 18+ all season and 10 wins by 30+ including playoff ens if 30-32-43-51. Nibble some alts in case OKC blows it open with a couple TO-fueled runs. Better alts based on history may be Pacers TT unders. No team has scored 100 in Finals G7 since 1988 with these games grinding it out. OKC held each previous playoff opponent <100 twice and <90 once. Pacers 7-3-1 to TT under as road dog in playoffs, OKC opp 10-1-1 to TT under. Great way to invest in G7 under + OKC defense, especially since Indy could even win and still hit the TT unders at 100-95-90.

OKC games this series and all playoffs have swung in a huge way home vs road. Thunder 10-2 at home, led big in the two losses at the buzzer, lowest win by 7, with all but one double digits and half by 26+. Avg margin +21 at home vs -7 road for playoffs. Home team 15-4 in Finals G7, and the home-road split checks out for OKC. Such a young team has played demonstrably better at home, and it's especially important for the defensive energy and the whistle, core to OKC identity. The most reliable prediction in this game is OKC playing with more D intensity and flipping the possessions game back its direction with TOs and oreb. Even if the half court offenses stall both ways, that math swing on possessions should be enough. Usually don't get blowouts in Finals G7, but over a third of OKC wins by 18+ all season and 10 wins by 30+ including playoff ens if 30-32-43-51. Nibble some alts in case OKC blows it open with a couple TO-fueled runs. Better alts based on history may be Pacers TT unders. No team has scored 100 in Finals G7 since 1988 with these games grinding it out. OKC held each previous playoff opponent <100 twice and <90 once. Pacers 7-3-1 to TT under as road dog in playoffs, OKC opp 10-1-1 to TT under. Great way to invest in G7 under + OKC defense, especially since Indy could even win and still hit the TT unders at 100-95-90.

OKC games this series and all playoffs have swung in a huge way home vs road. Thunder 10-2 at home, led big in the two losses at the buzzer, lowest win by 7, with all but one double digits and half by 26+. Avg margin +21 at home vs -7 road for playoffs. Home team 15-4 in Finals G7, and the home-road split checks out for OKC. Such a young team has played demonstrably better at home, and it's especially important for the defensive energy and the whistle, core to OKC identity. The most reliable prediction in this game is OKC playing with more D intensity and flipping the possessions game back its direction with TOs and oreb. Even if the half court offenses stall both ways, that math swing on possessions should be enough. Usually don't get blowouts in Finals G7, but over a third of OKC wins by 18+ all season and 10 wins by 30+ including playoff ens if 30-32-43-51. Nibble some alts in case OKC blows it open with a couple TO-fueled runs. Better alts based on history may be Pacers TT unders. No team has scored 100 in Finals G7 since 1988 with these games grinding it out. OKC held each previous playoff opponent <100 twice and <90 once. Pacers 7-3-1 to TT under as road dog in playoffs, OKC opp 10-1-1 to TT under. Great way to invest in G7 under + OKC defense, especially since Indy could even win and still hit the TT unders at 100-95-90.

I am ready to get hurt again. SGA assists have been a nightmare this series but align in a huge way with Thunder wins. He’s been the assists leader with 8 and 10 in the two good OKC wins, vs 5-4-2 in their losses. Our fade Hali assists play has crushed this round, only one game over 7 and 4/6 at 6 or below. You should definitely only play this if you like OKC. Escalator for SGA points and Siakam reb leaders if you want a fun sprinkle.

I am ready to get hurt again. SGA assists have been a nightmare this series but align in a huge way with Thunder wins. He’s been the assists leader with 8 and 10 in the two good OKC wins, vs 5-4-2 in their losses. Our fade Hali assists play has crushed this round, only one game over 7 and 4/6 at 6 or below. You should definitely only play this if you like OKC. Escalator for SGA points and Siakam reb leaders if you want a fun sprinkle.

This has cashed in 3/6 Finals games and you love to bet unders and fade scoring in Finals Game 7. Haliburton assists fade has been great, one game at 11 but otherwise 7-6-6-6-5 steadily under this number. SGA all over the place, did have 8-10 in two wins but way under the other four. No one else close. Passing and assists have just dried up and Finals G7 only push it further. If SGA does hit 8, we likely cash out assist leader bet, and there’s a decent chance of middling and cashing both.

SGA hasn’t hit 13 all season. Hali has done it 14x but Indy scored 114+ in all of them and went 11-3. If this misses, it’s likely bc the Pacers scored 120+ in a Finals G7 and won. I can live with that at this price. And if Hali does have that game, my +1600 FMVP ticket is looking pretty great anyway.

A natural extension of the 100 pt fade. No team has hit 100 in Finals G7 since 1988, and no team has hit 50 in the 1H either. Heck we only even have one 49 and one 46 in that whole span. Teams tend to play nervy ugly ball so as @iamrahstradamus says, let’s bet against human achievement. Shouts Lior Kozai on the idea. Under half props at 365.

A natural extension of the 100 pt fade. No team has hit 100 in Finals G7 since 1988, and no team has hit 50 in the 1H either. Heck we only even have one 49 and one 46 in that whole span. Teams tend to play nervy ugly ball so as @iamrahstradamus says, let’s bet against human achievement. Shouts Lior Kozai on the idea. Under half props at 365.

Just a fun long shot sprinkle, FD under record breakers cuz this would be a Finals g7 record. OKC actually never had a 6-steal game all season so not great but 8 5s, best shot is Caruso who had 4-5 steals 9x, 5/9 in playoffs, and could play max minutes in g7 finale. Nembhard had 6 vs Knicks last round too and TJ had 5 vs OKC a week ago. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ shouts Brett DiFranco for the idea!

IT’S 3PM SOMEWHERE!!! Hit in all 3 games in OKC and will be needed to be a spark plug for Pacers offense if they start to struggle.

#Tailing @wheatonbrando

Someone on Thunder needs to start hitting 3PT. Caruso likely see 30+ min since its G7 and like the bounceback spot after his worst game of the series.

Overall: 94-56-2,63% (ROI:21%) Season:10-7-0,59% (ROI:12%)

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