Spurs vs. Thunder Odds & Betting Predictions - December 25, 2025

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These two teams have just seen each other too often for this to fly over. Should be a rock fight.

I don’t think you could possibly find a bigger revenge spot all year. The Thunder have just four losses this season, and two of them came against the Spurs. They lost to San Antonio in the NBA Cup Semifinals and again on Tuesday when they were blown out 130-110. Despite those results, I think this game looks much different than the previous two. This is now the ultimate revenge spot for the Thunder at home on Christmas. This Oklahoma City team is chasing a historic season and does not take losses lightly. Now they get a chance to get their get back just two days later on their home floor? Yeah, sign me up. I have the Thunder rated far and away as the best team in the NBA. They own an 11.6 rating, while the next closest team sits at just 6.7. The Thunder also have the best defense in the league, and it’s not close. They rank first in points allowed, defensive efficiency, and defensive shot quality. They allow the fewest shots at the rim, which is especially important against a San Antonio team led by Victor Wembanyama. In the last meeting, they actually did a solid job on Wemby but were crushed from beyond the arc. The Spurs shot 16 for 36 (44%) from three, about 8% above what Thunder opponents usually average. Simply put, San Antonio had an outlier shooting night. Oklahoma City giving up 130 points is unheard of, and I expect a much more disciplined effort with a better game plan this time around. I do like this Spurs team, but the advanced metrics aren’t nearly as bullish. Shot Quality has them outside the top 10 in both offensive and defensive SQ. They also struggle with ball security, ranking just 13th in turnover rate. That’s a problem against Oklahoma City, the best turnover forcing team in the league, which has the ability to frustrate a young Spurs roster. San Antonio has also been a bit lucky this season, ranking third in our NBA luck ratings. Shot Quality projects them closer to a 17-13 team rather than their current 21-9 record. This Oklahoma City team is just different. I can’t see the Spurs giving them trouble a third time. The Thunder’s margins of victory after a loss this season are 31, 21, and 16 points. In a big Christmas Day spot, I think we see another statement win. I’ll gladly buy low on the Thunder while the market is buying high on the Spurs.

#RLM

Spite fade but also sharp

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