Freedman’s Favorite NBA Prop Bet (Jan. 16): Will Serge Ibaka Get 8 Rebounds?

Each day, I publish at least one quick-n’-dirty piece highlighting a favorite prop of mine.

For more information on my research process and the resources I use, see the master list of my 2019 prop bets.

2019 Year-to-Date Record

9-9-2, +7.22 Units

• Golf: 1-1-0, +0.25 Units
• NFL: 3-4-0, +6.35 Units
• NBA: 2-2-0, -0.33 Units
• NHL: 3-1-2, +1.95 Units
• NCAAF: 0-1-0. -1.0 Units

Freedman’s Favorite NBA Prop Bet for Wednesday, Jan. 16: Serge Ibaka Over/Under 7.5 Rebounds

This is a bonus prop for today, in addition to Jon Rahm vs. Patrick Cantlay.

I went 2-0 on my NBA props yesterday, and we're returning to the hardwood tonight with the Celtics-Raptors game (ESPN, 7:30 p.m. ET).

Toronto center Serge Ibaka provides a lot of value. In the FantasyLabs Props Tool, he is projected for nine rebounds, so both the line and the odds look inefficient.

For the season, Ibaka has just 7.2 rebounds per game, so his prop doesn’t look immediately investable, but over the past five games he’s seen an increase in playing time from 28.0 minutes to 31.5.

In the FantasyLabs NBA Models, we’re projecting Ibaka to continue to see more time on the court with 32.0 minutes, so he should have extra rebounding opportunities.

This line is available at MyBookie. At 7.5, I’d bet it to -115. At +115, I’d bet it to 8.0.

The Pick: Over (+115)

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.