Download the App Image

Heat vs. Celtics, Warriors vs. Mavericks Odds, Preview: Unders Have Been Historically Profitable These Playoffs

Heat vs. Celtics, Warriors vs. Mavericks Odds, Preview: Unders Have Been Historically Profitable These Playoffs article feature image
Credit:

Jed Jacobsohn/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Jordan Poole #3 of the Golden State Warriors high fives Draymond Green #23.

Two of the best defensive teams in the NBA face each other tonight in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals.

That’s reflected in the total for that contest, which has deteriorated to its market-best price of 203 on account of sharp action. That price had opened at 206.5.

It’s one of the lowest totals for a Conference Finals Game 1 over the last decade.

Perhaps the sharps are onto something. So far this postseason, the under has won at a 48-26 clip. That’s the best the under has done since 2005, when Action Labs started to compile data on the matter.

A $100 under bettor for each NBA playoff game through Round 2 would have won a total of $1,775. That’s a return on investment of just under 24%.

For reference, the annual average return of the S&P 500 — roughly the value of the American stock market — has been 8% for about a century. Since the start of the New Year, that index is down roughly 15%.

Bitcoin, for instance, is down about 36.7% over the past year.

The must-have app for NBA bettors

The best NBA betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

Both the Celtics and Heat have helped inflate that under mark drastically. The Heat are 9-2 on unders over the first two rounds while the Celtics are 7-4. Betting on just their unders at $100 each would have resulted in a profit of $855, or a roughly 39% return on investment.

Golden State and Dallas have a worse combined record against the under at 12-12, with the Warriors 4-7 on unders since April.

Dallas under bettors would be 8-5 this postseason with an ROI of 17.5% and a profit of $227.

How would you rate this article?