Heat vs. Celtics, Warriors vs. Mavericks Odds, Preview: Unders Have Been Historically Profitable These Playoffs
Jed Jacobsohn/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Jordan Poole #3 of the Golden State Warriors high fives Draymond Green #23.
Two of the best defensive teams in the NBA face each other tonight in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals.
That’s reflected in the total for that contest, which has deteriorated to its market-best price of 203 on account of sharp action. That price had opened at 206.5.
It’s one of the lowest totals for a Conference Finals Game 1 over the last decade.
Perhaps the sharps are onto something. So far this postseason, the under has won at a 48-26 clip. That’s the best the under has done since 2005, when Action Labs started to compile data on the matter.
A $100 under bettor for each NBA playoff game through Round 2 would have won a total of $1,775. That’s a return on investment of just under 24%.
For reference, the annual average return of the S&P 500 — roughly the value of the American stock market — has been 8% for about a century. Since the start of the New Year, that index is down roughly 15%.
Bitcoin, for instance, is down about 36.7% over the past year.
Both the Celtics and Heat have helped inflate that under mark drastically. The Heat are 9-2 on unders over the first two rounds while the Celtics are 7-4. Betting on just their unders at $100 each would have resulted in a profit of $855, or a roughly 39% return on investment.
Golden State and Dallas have a worse combined record against the under at 12-12, with the Warriors 4-7 on unders since April.
Dallas under bettors would be 8-5 this postseason with an ROI of 17.5% and a profit of $227.