Freedman’s Favorite NBA Prop Bet (Jan. 22): Will Dragan Bender Score 12 Points?

Each day, I publish at least one quick-n’-dirty piece highlighting a favorite prop of mine.

For more information on my research process and the resources I use, see the master list of my 2019 prop bets.

2019 Year-to-Date Record

18-13-3, +12.23 Units

• Golf: 2-2-1, +0.30 Units
• NFL: 5-5-0, +6.83 Units
• NBA: 6-3-0, +2.30 Units
• NHL: 5-2-2, +3.80 Units
• NCAAF: 0-1-0. -1.0 Units

Freedman’s Favorite NBA Prop Bet for Tuesday, Jan. 22: Dragan Bender Over/Under 11.5 Points 

• Over 11.5: -115
• Under 11.5: -115

Yesterday's NBA prop didn't pay off. It happens. We continue to grind. We stay humble.

Today's NBA action closes with the Suns-Timberwolves game (8 p.m. ET). Minnesota is a 5-point favorite, but the player who has caught my eye is Phoenix power forward Dragan Bender.

For the season, Bender has just 2.5 points on 9.1 minutes per game, but he's expected to start today, so he should see a big boost in scoring opportunities.

Two days ago, he had his first start of the year, and he scored 12 points in just over 29 minutes.

Are we expecting him to get 12 points again? No.

In the FantasyLabs Props Tool, we're projecting him for 8.1 points.

Last year, he started the final 29 games of the year. He played 30:30 minutes per game over that span, but averaged just 8.1 points.

This line is available at Bovada. At 11.5, I’d bet it to -135. At -115, I’d bet it to 10.5.

The Pick: Under (-115)

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.