NBA Betting Market Report (Tuesday, Nov. 19): Line Movement, Sharp Action on Every Game

NBA Betting Market Report (Tuesday, Nov. 19): Line Movement, Sharp Action on Every Game article feature image
Credit:

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Sacramento Kings guard Bogdan Bogdanovic (8).

You might be familiar with Action Network through our content, but we also provide a host of tools for bettors, season-long fantasy players and DFS fanatics. One I want to highlight in this piece is Sports Insights’ live odds page, which allows you to see real-time odds movement and how lines are moving.

As a bettor, it’s not only interesting but important to note where sharp money is coming in on a game. Sometimes a team will get 70% of the spread bets, but the line will actually move drastically in the favor of the other team.

Aligning yourself on the side of smart bettors — or just making sure you’re not consistently on the square side — can be invaluable for those looking to step up their betting game.

In this piece, I’ll walk through all four NBA games on the schedule tonight and show how to use the Sports Insights tools to analyze line movement and why the movement has occurred. For reference, here are a few phrases I’ll use, if you aren’t familiar with them:

  • Steam move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the entire sports betting marketplace. Steam is the result of a sudden overload of money placed at multiple sportsbooks and, in most cases, occurs due to betting groups, betting syndicates and a few key players with the resources to “get down heavily” at multiple locations, all at once.
  • Reverse line movement: Betting line movement that contradicts the public betting percentages

Odds as of Tuesday evening. 


Blazers at Pelicans

  • Spread: Pelicans -1
  • Over/Under: 230
  • Time: 8 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: NBA TV

Damian Lillard was surprisingly ruled out for this game at around 1:15 p.m. ET, which obviously made a big impact on the market. There was a steam move on the Blazers at -3 earlier in the morning, but since then we’ve seen heavy action towards the Pels, moving them from +3.5/4 to +1/.

 

As of writing, the Blazers have gotten 65% of the bets but just 38% of the spread dollars wagered. We’ll likely continue to see money pour in on this game, although it’s now held firm for a while after Lillard’s absence.

The over/under saw similar action…

That left steam move was on the over at 232.5, but after Lillard’s injury status was clear, bettors nailed the 234 available, and it now sits at 230. Interestingly, there’s been a recent steam move on the over at 230.

Remember that all of this information is available live for Sports Insights users and can be a big benefit to bettors, especially those wanting to know where sharp money is trending and why a line has moved.

Steam moves tracked: Blazers -3 (before Lillard), Pels +4, Pels +1.5, Over 232.5 (before Lillard), Under 234, Over 230
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Warriors at Grizzlies

  • Spread: Grizzlies -6
  • Over/Under: 221
  • Time: 8 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: League Pass

Bettors have been torn on this spread all day. There was an initial steam move on the Grizzlies at -6 and then again at -6.5, but then bettors hit the Warriors at some books who moved to +7. Since then we’ve tracked two steams moves on the Warriors at +6.5, which shows how divided bettors are on these numbers.

The over/under hasn’t seen quite as much action: We’ve tracked one steam move, which was on the under at 223. It now sits at 221, and there hasn’t been any buyback on the over.

Steam moves tracked: Grizzlies -6, Grizzlies -6.5, Warriors +6.5, Warriors +6.5, Warriors +6.5, Under 223
[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

Suns at Kings

  • Spread: Kings -2.5
  • Over/Under: 217
  • Time: 10 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: League Pass

Bettors are all over the Kings in this one. We tracked a steam move on the Kings at -1.5 and then again at -2.5. It moved back to -2 due to the public money on the Suns, and another steam move came at that number.

There have been no buybacks so far on Phoenix, which could be missing key members tonight in Ricky Rubio and Aron Baynes.

Despite fairly even ticket action on the over and under, the line has moved down over four points thanks to steam moves on under 220.5 and under 217, which is where it currently sits. It seems sharp bettors like it at any point at that number or above.

Steam moves tracked: Kings -1.5, Kings -2.5, Kings -2, Under 220.5, Under 217
[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

Thunder at Lakers

  • Spread: Lakers -11
  • Over/Under: 210.5
  • Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: NBA TV

There have been two reverse line moves on the Thunder at +11.5 and +11, but there have been no steam moves so far on this game.

It’s a similar story with the over/under, which remains at the opening line of 210.5. There’s been essentially no movement so far, indicating sharp bettors aren’t finding much value in this game.

Steam moves tracked: None
[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]