Wednesday NBA Betting Picks: Our Favorite Playoff Bets for Celtics vs. Heat Game 4 (Sept. 23)

There's a ton a stake for the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat in Wednesday's game. A win in tonight's matchup will be the difference between a 2-2 series or a 3-1 series lead for the Heat. You can read Joe Dellera's in-depth preview in our Game 4 breakdown here.

So, where’s the value today? Our staff is here to break down their favorite NBA bets for tonight’s Eastern Conference finals matchup:

• 8:30 p.m. ET: Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat

Wednesday NBA Betting Picks

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Brandon Anderson: Celtics vs. Heat

The Celtics have won eight of 12 quarters between these teams. They’ve led by double digits at the half twice and led in the second half every game.

In Game 3, they made two adjustments that gave them an even stronger position. The first was the return of Gordon Hayward who played 31 minutes off the bench. Hayward was their third-best player this regular season, and the most important part of his return is the way it minimizes the Celtics bench. No one outside the Celtics’ top six played 10 minutes in Game 3. Brad Stevens is playing the six guys he can count almost exclusively at this point.

The second adjustment came against Goran Dragic, who dominated the Celtics in the first two games with his penetration and creation. In Game 3, Boston increased the pressure on Dragic, usually with Marcus Smart.

Hayward should be fresh with the extra time between games. The Celtics' starters have been much better this series, and the Heat bench is shortening with each game. I’ve liked Boston better all the way, and even if we start to get one of those Celtics collapses against the zone, I think Hayward’s presence, passing, and calmness helps there too.

Erik Spoelstra will certainly adjust, but I’m not sure they have enough answers. I like Celtics against the spread, but expect that line to rise by tip, and besides, I’m greedy. I also like the C's straight up in the series — they’re currently a +115 underdog there.

I’ll play the Celtics to leads at half and win the game. Their only real shortcoming this series has been conditioning and second-half comebacks. I like them to build a big lead and do enough to hold on late if necessary.

The Pick: Celtics halftime/full time win parlay (+118)

[Bet the Celtics now at PointsBet risk-free up to $250]

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Matt Moore: Celtics vs. Heat

Gordon Hayward is back, and had an extra two days to recover from his return to the court. Hayward was the zone breaker in Game 3, and I expect more in this game.

You have to search to find Hayward props, which is annoying, but at BetMGM I tracked down his assists prop at 2.5 and even better, points-plus-rebounds-plus-assists over 21.5.

Our FantasyLabs system has Hayward projected for 5.9 rebounds and 13.2 points, for 19.1 combined. Three assists get us home. Hayward averaged 4.1 assists in the regular season and had four in 30 minutes in his first game back off a bad ankle. I like the Celtics spread at anything lower than -3.5, but my favorite bet of the day is on Hayward.

The PICK: Hayward over 21.5 points+rebounds+assists (-115) | Over 2.5 assists (-176)

[Bet Hayward at BetMGM and get a $500 INSTANT deposit match]

Raheem Palmer: Celtics vs. Heat

I took the Heat for the series, betting their series price and throughout the first three games of this series. The addition of Gordon Hayward has changed things, as having an additional playmaker has helped the Celtics attack the Heat's zone defense. The ability to play their five best players has also optimized their lineups and rotations.

The Celtics scored 60 points in the paint and shot 30 free throws, both of which were above their postseason averages. They also had their highest Offensive Rating throughout this series scoring 1.17 points per possession.

Still, I’m hesitant about laying the number with the Celtics. I may be in the minority, but the Celtics haven’t particularly impressed me throughout the postseason.

Yes, the swept the first round, but the abysmal Philadelphia 76ers played them tough without Ben Simmons and had opportunities to win three out of the four games. The Toronto Raptors pushed them to seven games despite struggling to score one point per possession and Pascal Siakam being a complete no show.

The Celtics actually have led the Heat for 111 out of the 149 total minutes in this series, holding double-digit leads in all three games. They’ve won eight out the 12 quarters as Brandon noted, holding a lead for a whopping 74.6% of this series. The flip side, however, is they’ve blown double-digit leads in all three games.

They’ve shown vulnerabilities throughout the playoffs that could have them leaving the bubble early, especially against a resilient Heat team. I don’t see a compelling reason to play a side, but there is some value on the total.

The Pace of play has increased in each game of this series:

Game 1: 90
Game 2: 93.2
Game 3: 99

Neither side has proven that they can stop the opposing team as the Celtics are scoring 1.10 points per possession with the Heat scoring 1.09 PPP. The Heat shot just 27% from behind the arc in Game 3 and the game still soared over the total.

Jimmy Butler has been primarily picking his spots throughout this series, waiting until the second half to attack. After a quiet Game 3, I think we see a more aggressive version of Butler, which typically means more fouls.

With the Celtics making the adjustment towards driving to the basket more, I expect we'll continue to see more free throw attempts and points in the paint as we did in Game 3. I like the over 211.

The Pick: Over 211 (-112)

[Bet the Over at DraftKings and get a $1,000 bonus, including a $500 risk-free bet]