NBA Betting Odds & Picks: Our Staff’s Best Bets for Celtics vs. Grizzlies, Spurs vs. Mavericks (April 10)
Adam Pantozzi/Getty Images. Pictured: Dejounte Murray
The NBA regular season concludes on Sunday with all 30 teams in action.
There are a handful of key games with postseason seeding implications, and our Action Network NBA analysts have identified seven best bets from today’s slate.
Check out their best bets and analysis below.
NBA Odds & Picks
Boston Celtics vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Matt Moore: The Celtics will know if the Bucks won or lost by this point. The Bucks should be resting guys, and the Cavs need the win, so they should win, and the Bucks should lose.
I just don’t get the feeling the Bucks are scared of the Nets if the Nets wind up in 7th. Maybe they should be, but that doesn’t feel like the Celtics’ approach. The Grizzlies brought back Ja Morant in a blowout win Saturday, and they have no reason to play guys here.
With a win, the Celtics win the division and beat out the Sixers. That’s enough of a pride motivation for me to go with Boston.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets
Matt Moore: For starters, the Nuggets have already started the process of laying out injury concerns to rest various players in this spot. Most importantly, Nikola Jokic should sit, and if the likely MVP doesn’t play, Denver does not have the horses here… even with the Lakers without their trio of stars. Malik Monk and Stanley Johnson can get them through here.
Then you have motivation. If the Jazz were to somehow lose to the Blazers, and the Nuggets win, they would be 4th and likely face the Mavericks (a tough matchup) but also be in Phoenix’s side of the bracket. The Nuggets are good in the 6-spot.
I’ll take the Lakers with young guys playing for contracts vs. a team with no motivation to win.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Dallas Mavericks
Matt Moore: Double motivation spot! The Mavericks can get out of the Suns’ side of the bracket (a much preferable spot) with a win.
Meanwhile, funny story, if the Spurs don’t make the playoffs, their lottery standing still matters.
A Spurs loss ensures they’ll be ahead of the Wizards in the lottery odds. The Spurs cannot pass the Pelicans for the 9th seed and homecourt; they’re locked in 10th.
So you have the Spurs with actual incentive to lose in the last game of the season and Dallas with motivation to win. I’ll lay the points.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Dallas Mavericks
Tyler Schmidt: The Mavericks need a win and a Warriors loss to get the No. 3 seed for the Western Conference playoffs. A loss or Warriors win, and they will stay at No. 4, which is still a home playoff advantage in the first round. They are double-0digit home favorites against the Spurs, who sat everyone last night and may do the same tonight.
Luka Doncic had his 16th technical foul of the season rescinded, so he will be able to play in this game. That helps their chances and slightly hurts this Jalen Brunson player prop. Still, the line still feels too low at 3.5 assists in this spot against the Spurs who rank third in Pace as this total is set at 224.5 points.
Brunson is averaging a career-high 4.8 assists per game this season. He has done most of his damage with Doncic out of the lineup, but he is still averaging four assists per game in the 61 games that Doncic has been in the lineup.
Brunson has struggled to hit this prop in four-straight games, but this is a perfect bounce back spot against the Spurs. Both Draymond Green and Jordan Poole recorded eight assists last night against this make-shift Spurs lineup. Doncic and Brunson could easily replicate that in this matchup.
Our model has Brunson projected for 5.3 assists, which provides incredible value on the 3.5 prop line. I would consider taking Brunson’s over 4.5 assists for a juiced prop, but I wouldn’t go any higher than that, despite the matchup.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Dallas Mavericks
Raheem Palmer: The NBA rescinded Luka Doncic’s 16th technical foul, which would have left him ineligible to play in today’s game against the San Antonio Spurs in a game where the Dallas Mavericks will be looking to win and move up to the third seed in the Western Conference playoff race.
The Mavericks have been red-hot and won six out of the last seven games while scoring a whopping 130.1 points per 100 possessions over the last two weeks, first among NBA teams. They now take on the San Antonio Spurs who are locked into the 9-10 play-in game and come off a 100-94 loss to the Golden State Warriors on Saturday night.
While many would expect the Spurs to rest, Dejounte Murray, Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell and Jakob Poeltl will all be back in the lineup today, so we should expect a full effort from this group. Murray has missed five straight games due to an illness and will want to build up his conditioning and rhythm with teammates before the play-in game.
While many people will play the Mavericks based on the motivational factor, this line is too high. Oddsmakers have this spread listed at 11.5, but my model has this game closer to Mavs -8.
The Mavericks and Spurs have played three games this year with the Spurs covering two out of the three matchups in what were close games that came down to the wire. The Mavs have been on a tear recently, but I think the Spurs can keep this within the number.
Spurs vs. Mavericks | Golden State Warriors vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Brandon Anderson: I love to parlay correlated results on the final day of the season.
The Warriors have every reason to go out and slam the door on a Pelicans team playing for nothing and likely resting. New Orleans is locked into the 9-seed now, thanks to Golden State’s win over the Spurs yesterday, and they need the rest, especially Brandon Ingram.
The Warriors are pushing hard for the 3-seed, and a win in this game secures that spot, on the other half of the bracket away from the Phoenix Suns. A Warriors win also makes the Mavs-Spurs game meaningless, and that’s the catch.
If the Warriors do go up big early on the Pelicans, it might behoove the Mavs to call off the dogs in a dead rubber and let Luka Doncic and his teammates get a little rest before the playoffs. San Antonio should be resting its top players anyway with a play-in game coming Wednesday, but we know the Spurs have a long history with Dallas and would love to spoil the Mavericks’ best laid plans anyway.
I’ll play this correlated parlay. If the Warriors do pull away quickly from the Pelicans, we get a great lottery ticket on a Spurs win in a pretty meaningless game.
Utah Jazz vs. Portland Trail Blazers | Lakers vs. Nuggets
Brandon Anderson: If there’s one thing we know about the Utah Jazz this season, it’s that this team absolutely loves to make things interesting in games that should be long gone.
There are too many blown Jazz leads to count at this point. Thankfully, we can count how many times Utah has blown a game as a massive favorite. This season as double-digit favorites, the Jazz are only 18-7, winning 72% of the time. That doesn’t sound so bad until you realize only five other NBA teams have even TWO losses as a double-digit favorite this season. The rest of the league is 156-21 in that spot, winning 88% of the time.
Betting against the Jazz as huge favorites has been massively profitable this season. The ROI on double-digit underdogs against Utah is at 71.7% for the year. If you blindly bet $100 on every double-digit dog that played the Jazz, you’d be up $1792 already — and that doesn’t even count how often Utah has become a massive in-game favorite and blown those too.
Look, the Blazers are bad. They’ve won twice since the All-Star Break. They’re playing guys you’ve never heard of, and they have absolutely no business being in this game. One important factor, though, is that Portland’s draft position is locked, so the Blazers have no reason to tank here. These young guys are playing for pride and to end Chauncey Billups’s first season on a high note.
If Utah does lose, the Nuggets have every incentive to win because it gives them the 5-seed, the division title, and a much better first round matchup. We know Denver wants the win and that the Lakers’ scrubs are playing. I won’t mess around with the spread, but I expect the Nuggets to get the win if they see an opportunity from the Blazers-Jazz game.
Don’t go crazy on this one, but let’s be honest — a shocking Jazz loss in the season finale to a bunch of Blazers G-Leaguers might actually be the least shocking way possible for this Utah season to end.
How would you rate this article?
This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.