NBA Expert Betting Picks (Tuesday, Feb. 4): Best Bets for Hornets vs. Rockets, More


Ned Dishman/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Terry Rozier (3) of the Charlotte Hornets.

There are four quality games on Tuesday’s NBA schedule and our experts are betting on these specific matchups:

  • 7:30 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Bucks at New Orleans Pelicans  
  • 8 p.m. ET: Charlotte Hornets at Houston Rockets 
  • 10 p.m. ET: San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Lakers

See the two bets they’re making below.

Odds as of Tuesday afternoon and via FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.

John Ewing: Hornets at Rockets

  • Spread: Rockets -14
  • Over/Under: 224.5
  • Time: 8 p.m. ET

Recency bias impacts how gamblers bet. For example, if a team fails to cover the previous game the public is more likely to bet against them in their next matchup and they are more likely to bet on a squad that covered the last time they hit the hardwood.

Oddsmakers understand this tendency and will shade lines to force casual bettors to take bad numbers. This creates a betting opportunity for savvy gamblers.

The optimal situation is to wager on a team that failed to cover in its previous game when it faces a team that cashed tickets for gamblers last time out.

Since 2005, gamblers following this system have gone 546-448-17 (55%) ATS, returning a profit of $7,107 for a $100 bettor.

Hornets lost and failed to cover against the Magic on Monday. The Rockets won and covered against the Pelicans on Sunday. A majority of tickets are on Houston to cover again on Tuesday.

But history suggests gamblers shouldn’t be surprised if the Hornets get the win for bettors.

The PICK: Hornets +14

Brandon Anderson: Bucks, Lakers, Rockets Parlay

The Bucks are playing at the Pelicans in a game with a historically high over/under total of 246 and rising. We get Giannis Antetokounmpo and Zion Williamson on a national TV game, and the stars will be out.

The Bucks are favored by 6.5 on the road against a Pelicans team that’s probably still a bit underrated right now with Zion. I’m not totally confident the Bucks will cover, but I feel pretty good about them getting the win, even if it’s close. So rather than ride out the spread, I’m taking the Bucks on the moneyline and turning this into a parlay.

The Lakers and Rockets are home against the Spurs and Hornets. I don’t feel the need to explain to you why the home teams should win those two, even with a depleted Rockets roster and an exhausted Lakers one. I’ll parlay those two moneylines with Milwaukee’s to give me something around a -150 as my way of buying off the 6.5 points the Bucks are favored by.

Just win, baby.

The PICK: ML parlay (-139)

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