The Oklahoma City Thunder (64-16) and Denver Nuggets (52-28) will face off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 9:00 p.m. ET from Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado. The game will broadcast live on ALT.
The Nuggets are 11.5-point favorites over the Thunder on the spread (Nuggets -11.5), with the over/under set at 231.5 total points. Denver is a -600 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Oklahoma City is +440 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Thunder vs. Nuggets predictions and NBA picks for Friday, April 10.
Thunder vs Nuggets Prediction, Pick
- Thunder vs Nuggets pick: Isaiah Joe Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made
My Nuggets vs. Thunder best bet is on Isaiah Joe to make over 1.5 three-pointers in tonight's game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Thunder vs Nuggets Odds
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -112 | 231.5 -114o / -106u | +440 |
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -108 | 231.5 -114o / -106u | -600 |
Thunder vs Nuggets NBA Preview
Long story short, in tonight's matchup between the Thunder and Nuggets, I’ve got one specific player prop that stands out amidst the absolute chaos of the final days of the season — and the pick is Isaiah Joe over 1.5 three-pointers.
First, we have to address the Denver injury report because, frankly, it is legitimately weird. The Nuggets have Nikola Jokic, Aaron Gordon, and Jamal Murray all listed as questionable for this game.
This is a massive spot for the Nuggets. They need this win if they are going to secure the 3-seed — and perhaps, more importantly, stay out of the Thunder’s side of the bracket for the playoffs.
It feels like the Nuggets are counting on the Thunder to just roll over and sit everyone — and yes, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the rest of the primary starters might be in street clothes tonight — but Denver might be miscalculating the Thunder’s bench culture.
The reality of this Oklahoma City team is that their bench guys don’t just fill minutes; they play hard, they execute, and they stay within their system. Even if the stars are out, the Thunder’s offensive principles remain the same.
On the defensive end, looking at Denver's approach — especially if someone like Jonas Valančiūnas is starting — we know exactly what they are going to do. They are going to run their coverage at "the level" of the screen. In this specific scheme, that defensive movement consistently leaves the corner three wide open over and over again.
That is exactly where Joe becomes the most dangerous man on the floor. He is the Thunder's best corner shooter, and we have played this specific angle consistently all season because it continues to hit for us.
This logic was dynamite for us in several recent games, particularly the matchup against the Spurs where Joe feasted on similar looks.
Thunder vs Nuggets Predictions, Betting Analysis
I’ll take Isaiah Joe to make over 1.5 three-pointers tonight.
Whether the Nuggets’ stars play or not, the Thunder’s second unit is going to play with high intensity and execute the same high-value shots they hunt every night.
Joe only needs a couple of clean looks from his favorite spots to clear this, and given the way Denver defends the perimeter, he’s going to get them.
Pick: Isaiah Joe Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made
