We have an excellent slate of NBA Cup games in front of us tonight, and I've been crunching the numbers to find the best spots on the board. From sides and totals to specific matchup angles, I've locked in my favorite plays for the evening.
Let's get into my NBA predictions and expert bets for Friday, October 30.
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NBA Predictions & Picks for Friday, October 30
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Pistons vs. Nets
Nets +7.5
Jalen Duren is out for the Pistons, and Isaiah Joe is questionable with a hip injury.
This is a bet on the idea that Brooklyn is better than their stats, record, or ATS record suggest.
So yeah, it’s pretty dumb on the surface.
Here’s the idea: the Nets have played Charlotte (2nd in 3-point rate), the Cavaliers (14th in 3-point rate; Brooklyn covered), Indiana (second night of a back-to-back on the road), and the Celtics (3rd in 3-point rate; Nets covered in overtime).
The pattern suggests the Nets had a brutal schedule start, exacerbated by teams that take advantage of a math problem. Brooklyn has the third-highest three-point rate in the league, and 18th in percentage early in this season.
The Nets can hang in games, but not when they get overwhelmed. The Pistons are not a team that overwhelms you, and they’re shorthanded.
Detroit is taking more threes this season (15th in three-point rate) but still not a huge amount. Without Jalen Duren, they are not quite as dominant on the interior, and without Joe, they lose a shooter.
I make this line Pistons -4.8 with the 3rd-in-4 spot and injuries. That might be aggressive, and certainly the Nets have a great capacity for getting stomped. But I think it’s the right spot to back Brooklyn to get another cover.
Pick: Nets +7.5
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Hornets vs. Wizards
Hornets +1.5
The Wizards just might not be any good. The Hornets might not be, either, especially with their injuries, but their formula is better.
Charles Lee has a pretty apparent formula: take threes, prevent threes, gain rebounds, deny rebounds.
The Hornets take the 2nd-most three-pointers in the league and allow the seventh-fewest. They have the second-highest offensive rebound rate and they allow the third-fewest.
It's all a math equation: More possessions. More points per possession. Allow fewer possessions. Allow fewer points per possession.
The Wizards, on the other hand, don’t have a great blueprint. They take mid-range shots instead of threes. They make shots at the rim but don’t get there very often.
Charlotte’s approach won’t work against everyone, but it will work against the Wizards.
I make this line Hornets -1.5, so I’m willing to take the other side in a coin flip based on the matchup.
Pick: Hornets +1.5
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Knicks vs. 76ers
76ers +1.5 (Lean)
How are the Sixers underdogs here? Jaylen Brown is questionable, and that matters. But they are home 'dogs against a team they’ve already beaten on the road? When the Knicks have looked messy and off kilter all season?
Baffling.
I don’t think the line is dramatically off; I make this a pick‘em. But this is definitely a Philly spot.
The Sixers’ halfcourt offense is rough; they’re still trying to figure out how to work together. But that’s still considerably better than where the Knicks are right now.
The Knicks have a size advantage, while the Sixers have the edge in speed and athleticism.
Without Jaylen Brown the Sixers are likely to rely more on Tyrese Maxey, who has been their best player by far.
If Brown plays, this line likely flips back the other way. Philly is the right side regardless.
Pick: Lean 76ers +1.5
Under 228.5
Like I said, the Sixers’ halfcourt offense is rackety. They will get out in transition, but the Knicks play much slower.
So, less efficient halfcourt offense for one team, slower pace for the other. That’s how we get to an under in a battle where both teams will take defense seriously.
Pick: Under 228.5
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made
With Joel Embiid playing, the Sixers will play drop coverage and protect the rim.
When Embiid is off the floor, they’ll have to sink back to the rim because of their lack of size.
Karl-Anthony Towns should get plenty of good looks from deep as the Sixers try and protect the interior.
Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made
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Clippers vs. Timberwolves
Timberwolves -7.5
I’m just not giving up on the Wolves yet. Their first game without Anthony Edwards was a disaster against a small and undermanned Warriors team, but I’m unable to escape the idea that the market has overreacted to the Edwards’ injury.
Minnesota’s offense was running hot before the injury, but their defense is actually what’s carrying them, and guess what? That is still the case with Ant out.
The Clippers’ defense has been quietly very good, but they’re missing too many offensive weapons — and the Clippers have the second-worst halfcourt offense in the league thus far.
It’s likely that LaMelo Ball figures out how to manage the offense without Ant’s step-back shooting, and Minnesota still has enough shooters to get by.
The Wolves defense alone should allow them to to create separation in this game. I’ll back Minnesota to get back on track against a Clippers team without enough firepower to keep pace.
Pick: Timberwolves -7.5
Jonathan Kuminga Under 1.5 Three-Pointers Made
Jonathan Kuminga has shot outrageously well from three-point range to start the season.
The Clippers are top-five in corner threes per game allowed; they’ll handle the rotations to the corner better and keep Kuminga out of those shots.
I’m trying to catch a falling knife, but the Clippers should be able to slow down Kuminga from long range at least.
Pick: Jonathan Kuminga Under 1.5 Three-Pointers Made
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Pacers vs. Heat
Over 238.5
I am choosing not to overthink this. Miami wants to play fast; the Pacers do play fast. They are both top-10 in pace, and the same was true last season.
Both teams are also bottom-10 in defense early in the season. Miami may have turned a corner with their first win this week, but they’re still trying to figure out how to fit all their new pieces together.
Indiana lost their engine in Tyrese Haliburton this week but still have enough firepower to keep pace.
When these two teams met last season, the over was still 2-1.
The Pacers had almost no defensive intentions last season, but their efforts have been disappointing so far.
There’s just no real way to put an accurate limit on what these teams are capable of in terms of offensive pace.
Miami is constantly either blitzing aggressively or conservatively hiding using drop coverage. Either way, the Pacers are equipped to counter them and get to the rim.
I project this under the total, but that uses last year’s figures with last year’s Pacers — and this one looks like more of an NBA Cup shootout.
Pick: Over 238.5
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Nuggets vs. Suns
Over 231.5
Denver’s defense has been statistically good, but to the eye, it’s an abomination.
The Nuggets can’t contain drives; their schemes get exploited too easily; they give up layups and corner threes — the worst shots to give up over and over.
But Denver's offense has also lagged behind. Nikola Jokic looked like himself on Wednesday against the Pelicans, and that’s likely a sign of Denver starting to become the better offense.
The Nuggets may get back Cameron Johnson or Spencer Jones for this game. That will add a floor spacer they badly need.
The Suns have allowed the most points per possession in the halfcourt. This is likely to be a high scoring affair between two bad defenses trying to out-fail one another.
Pick: Over 231.5
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