NBA Cup group play begins tonight, and our Action Network staff has you covered from every angle. We've pooled our top analysis and broken down the board to bring you our favorite spreads, totals, and player props for today's slate.
Continue below for our NBA Cup best bets, picks, and predictions for Friday, October 30.
If you want more Action Network content, be sure to add us as a preferred source on Google and download the Action Network app for more NBA picks and analysis!
NBA Cup Best Bets for Friday, October 30
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
  | 10 p.m. | |
  | 10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Hornets vs. Wizards
Hornets +1.5
By Matt Moore
The Wizards just might not be any good. The Hornets might not be, either, especially with their injuries, but their formula is better.
Charles Lee has a pretty apparent formula: take threes, prevent threes, gain rebounds, deny rebounds.
The Hornets take the 2nd-most three-pointers in the league and allow the seventh-fewest. They have the second-highest offensive rebound rate and they allow the third-fewest.
More possessions. More points per possession. Allow fewer possessions. Allow fewer points per possession.
The Wizards, on the other hand, don’t have a great blueprint. They take mid-range shots instead of threes. They make shots at the rim but don’t get there very often.
Charlotte’s approach won’t work against everyone, but it will work against the Wizards.
I make this line Hornets -1.5, so I’m willing to take the other side in a coin flip based on the matchup.
Pick: Hornets +1.5 (-115)
Moussa Diabate Over 10.5 Rebounds (-110) | 14+ Rebounds (+330)
By Jim Turvey
The underlying rebounding metrics for Moussa Diabate this season have been staggering. He is currently getting a comical 23.2 rebound chances per game, which is just absolutely insane volume.
The only thing keeping this line remotely low is his conversion rate; he is somehow only converting 40.5 percent of those rebound chances right now. To put that into perspective, the names sitting around that 40 percent conversion mark are guards like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Payton Pritchard, Landry Shamet, Duncan Robinson, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker.
Diabate is a big man, and traditional bigs usually convert around 60 to 65 percent of their chances. I expect that conversion anomaly to positively regress, especially in this specific matchup.
Tonight, Diabate gets to face a Wizards team that currently owns the second-worst defensive rebounding rate and the third-worst offensive rebounding rate in the NBA. Just two games ago against this same Wizards squad, Diabate pulled down 17 rebounds.
With Naz Reid seemingly semi-entrenched in the Charles Lee doghouse, that could open up even more rebounding opportunities for Diabate.
Diabate had his minutes artificially deflated once this season by a blowout and once when he got into the doghouse himself for a low-20s minute game, but in his regular rotation spots, he is playing in the mid-30s.
I don't expect Grant Williams to be back yet to cut into his playing time, giving Diabate a nice ceiling in this Cup debut. So, I will also climb the ladder up and sprinkle on 14+ rebounds (+330) as well.
Pick: Moussa Diabate Over 10.5 Rebounds (-110) | 14+ Rebounds (+330)
| | | | | | |
Knicks vs. 76ers
Under 228.5
By Matt Moore
The Sixers’ halfcourt offense is rough; they’re still trying to figure out how to work together. But that’s still considerably better than where the Knicks are right now.
The Knicks have a size advantage, while the Sixers have the speed and athleticism edge.
Without Jaylen Brown they’re likely to rely more on Tyrese Maxey, who has been their best player by far.
The Sixers’ will try to get out and run in transition, but the Knicks play much slower. So, less efficient halfcourt offense for one team, slower pace for the other.
That’s how we get to an under in a battle where both teams will take defense seriously.
Pick: Under 228.5 (-110)
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 30.5 Points & Rebounds
By Joe Dellera
The Knicks face off against the 76ers to kick off NBA Cup Group Play tonight, and I am looking right at Karl-Anthony Towns to get another crack at this Sixers team.
If we look back at the season opener, Towns really struggled with foul trouble, which ultimately limited him to just 24 minutes on the floor. Despite that restriction, he still managed to put up 19 points and 12 rebounds, meaning he still would have cleared this combined number.
KAT has now eclipsed this 30.5 PR mark in all five games to start the season. The nature of the matchup also supports him having another big night. Philly is a poor rebounding team, so there is plenty of upside for him to dominate the glass.
When you couple that lack of interior resistance with the fact that the Sixers are currently playing at the sixth-fastest pace in the league, this should be a good spot for Towns to perform.
Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 30.5 Points & Rebounds (-120)
| | | | | | |
Magic vs. Raptors
Magic +5.5
By Matt Moore
I am simply not confident that the absences of Paolo Banchero and Jalen Suggs are worth as much to the spread as they are currently being accounted for by the betting market.
The Raptors have looked awesome lately, even with Kawhi Leonard sidelined, but I just don't agree with where this specific line is positioned.
My personal projections only have this game at Raptors -2.5 in a vacuum, meaning I am showing significant value on the underdog here.
We have to remember that while Banchero was playing phenomenal basketball last season, he was actually grading out as a net-negative type of player in certain impact metrics.
As for Suggs, he unfortunately misses so much time due to injury that this Orlando roster already knows exactly how to play and adapt without him on the floor.
The Magic are a gritty, well-coached defensive team, and I fully expect them to come out motivated and wanting to compete in the NBA Cup environment.
I'm backing Orlando to keep this game tight.
Pick: Magic +5.5 (-115)
Anthony Black Over 21.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists
By Jim Turvey
The foundational angle for this play is rooted in the pace of the game. Toronto is currently operating as the second-fastest paced team in the league, creating a fantastic up-and-down environment to accumulate ancillary stats.
When evaluating Anthony Black's recent playing time, his minutes log is a bit of a lie right now. In his last game, he only logged 22 minutes due to a blowout script, and in his first game back, he was restricted to 26 minutes simply because he was getting his legs under him.
Now fully integrated, I expect him to see a full workload of around 30 minutes tonight. The betting market seems to be heavily pricing this line based on that deflated 26-minute average rather than his actual 30-minute ceiling.
With the current construction of this new Orlando lineup, Anthony Black is the best pure creator on the floor. Even with Franz Wagner doing a little bit of playmaking, Black is going to naturally slide into the primary point guard role.
The pace-up spot against the Raptors makes this PRA over a fantastic look.
Pick: Anthony Black Over 21.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists (-115)
| | | | | | |
Pacers vs. Heat
Over 238.5
By Matt Moore
I am choosing not to overthink this. Miami wants to play fast; the Pacers do play fast. They are both top-10 in pace, and the same was true last season.
Both teams are also bottom-10 in defense early in the season. Miami may have turned a corner with their first win this week, but they’re still trying to figure out how to fit all their new pieces together.
Indiana lost their engine in Tyrese Haliburton this week but still have enough firepower to keep pace.
When these two teams met last season, the over was still 2-1.
The Pacers had almost no defensive intentions last season, but their efforts have been disappointing so far.
There’s just no real way to put an accurate limit on what these teams are capable of in terms of offensive pace.
Miami is constantly either blitzing aggressively or conservatively hiding using drop coverage. Either way, the Pacers are equipped to counter them and get to the rim.
I project this under the total, but that uses last year’s figures with last year’s Pacers — and this one looks like more of an NBA Cup shootout.
Pick: Over 238.5 (-110)
Giannis Antetokounmpo 30+ Points
By Joe Dellera
This is just a phenomenal situational spot for Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Giannis historically absolutely crushes the Pacers, as he is consistently able to get downhill, impose his physical will, and relentlessly attack the rim against their defensive fronts.
That aggressive downhill attack is going to be amplified tonight because Indiana is walking into this game a little bit banged up, missing two of their key pieces in Tyrese Haliburton and Ivica Zubac.
Playing without Zubac removes their primary interior rim protector, leaving the paint wide open for Giannis to feast.
The game environment is also going to be lightning-fast. The Heat are playing at a much faster tempo this season, and the Pacers also operate at a breakneck pace, giving us two top-10 pace teams squaring off.
I know it's a slightly different dynamic with Giannis navigating his new role in Miami, but he is motivated to establish something meaningful with this franchise right now.
Giannis should get a ton of transition opportunities to get to the basket. I'll back him to score 30+ points tonight.
Pick: Giannis Antetokounmpo 30+ Points (-120)
| | | | | | |
Clippers vs. Timberwolves
Timberwolves -7.5
By Matt Moore
I’m just not giving up on the Wolves yet. Their first game without Anthony Edwards was a disaster against a small and undermanned Warriors team, but I’m unable to escape the idea that the market has overreacted to Anthony Edwards’ injury.
Minnesota’s offense was running hot before the injury, but their defense is actually what’s carrying them, and guess what? That is still the case with Ant out.
The Clippers’ defense has been quietly very good, but they’re missing too many offensive weapons — and the Clippers have the second-worst halfcourt offense in the league thus far.
It’s likely that LaMelo Ball figures out how to manage the offense without Ant’s step-back shooting. Minnesota still has solid pieces.
The Wolves defense alone is likely to be able to create separation. I’ll back Minnesota to get back on track against a Clippers team without enough firepower to keep pace.
Pick: Timberwolves -7.5 (-110)
Terrence Shannon Jr. Over 12.5 Points
By Joe Dellera
When evaluating this Timberwolves rotation, I have been trying to figure out who is really going to absorb the extra usage with Anthony Edwards currently sidelined.
Head coach Chris Finch opted to slot Ayo Dosunmu directly into the starting lineup, which opens up significantly more room for Terrence Shannon Jr. to operate as the primary offensive engine for the second unit.
Because he is no longer sharing the bench with Dosunmu, Shannon Jr. is going to be the undisputed guy they look to for scoring when he checks into the game.
Shannon Jr. has been very consistent early on, scoring at least 10 points in every single game this season and clearing this 12.5 line in four straight contests.
The Clippers present a notably soft defensive matchup, and while the Timberwolves are currently 7.5-point favorites, they could arguably be favored by even more.
If Minnesota ends up running up the score in a blowout, Shannon Jr. is also the type of bench player the Wolves will leave on the floor to initiate the offense in garbage time.
Whether in the natural flow of the rotation or in late-game mop-up duty, he should get plenty of opportunities with the ball in his hands tonight.
Pick: Terrence Shannon Jr. Over 12.5 Points (-115)
| | | | | | |
Lakers vs. Warriors
Luka Doncic Over 32.5 Points
By Joe Dellera
Luka Doncic is a very petty basketball player, and he has undoubtedly been hearing all the ridiculous soundbites surrounding Golden State's rookie big man Yaxel Lendeborg.
Luka literally took the Lakers' last game off, and it seems like he spent that entire time sitting around watching film and plotting Yaxel's demise.
In their previous one-on-one matchup, Luka actually didn't shoot the ball that well against him��the only shot he made was a wild half-court heave—but that was just a complete fluke.
While Yaxel possesses a solid motor, his weak-side defense is terrible, and his on-ball defense is merely okay. When you put an "okay" defender on an island against a motivated Luka Doncic who has had a week to study his tendencies, he is going to cook him.
I expect Doncic to go at him non-stop from the opening tip, and it wouldn't shock me if Yaxel fouls out in the first quarter. This game is going to feature next-level trash talk and probably a few technical fouls.
The only reason Luka didn't clear this line against them in the season opener was because the Lakers won in a blowout and his minutes were reduced.
Now, with the stakes raised for an NBA Cup game, the Lakers are going to unleash him.
Pick: Luka Doncic Over 32.5 Points (-125)
| | | | | | |
Nuggets vs. Suns
Over 231.5
By Matt Moore
Denver’s defense has been statistically good, but to the eye, it’s an abomination.
The Nuggets can’t contain drives; their schemes get exploited too easily; they give up layups and corner threes — the worst shots to give up over and over.
But Denver's offense has also lagged behind. Nikola Jokic looked like himself on Wednesday against the Pelicans, and that’s likely a sign of Denver starting to become the better offense.
The Nuggets may get back Cameron Johnson or Spencer Jones for this game. That will add a floor spacer they badly need.
The Suns have allowed the most points per possession in the halfcourt. This is likely to be a high scoring affair between two bad defenses trying to out-fail one another.
Pick: Over 231.5 (-105)
| | | | | | |
