NBA First Basket Prop Pick: Devin Vassell Is the Best Value Play in Spurs vs. Kings (November 17)
Michael Gonzales/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Devin Vassell #24 of the San Antonio Spurs.
NBA First Basket will break down some of his favorite NBA plays of the day here, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.
|Prop||Devin Vassell First Basket (+800)|
|Time||10 p.m. ET|
Domantas Sabonis (16% opening-tip win rate) will be jumping at center against Jakob Poeltl (59% win rate). These two faced off against each other once last year and unsurprisingly, Poeltl won the tip. Due in part to the Kings’ inability to control tip-offs, they have struggled in opening possessions and have scored first just 38% of the time this season. The Spurs, however, have been above average at scoring first this season, converting the first basket in 53% of the games.
Both teams are extremely inefficient in early possessions averaging more than 2.4 attempts to make their first field goal this season. I think the Spurs have around an 80% chance of winning the opening-tip this evening considering the Kings’ poor numbers.
Keldon Johnson has scored the Spurs’ first basket in four of his 14 games this season. Vassell and Jeremy Sochan have each scored first in three of the Spurs’ 14 games this season. Collectively, one of these three have scored first in 71% of games this season. Defensively, the Kings have a tendency to allow the opposing center, small forward or shooting guard to make the first basket in 77% of games this season.
I could make an argument for Johnson and Poeltl, but I don’t think their current odds have much value. I’m going to take Vassell as I think his odds should be closer to +550.
The Pick: Devin Vassell First Field Goal (+800, risk 0.5 units); Play down to +550
Spurs vs. Kings First Basket Data
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