Wizards vs. Hawks NBA Odds & Picks: Betting Value On Monday’s Over/Under (May 10)
Ned Dishman/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Russell Westbrook #4 of the Washington Wizards.
- The Washington Wizards and Atlanta Hawks meet in a crucial Eastern Conference matchup in ATL.
- The Wizards have been red-hot and look to continue their playoff push, but will be without Bradley Beal in this matchup.
- Phillip Kall explains why he loves the total in tonight's game.
Wizards vs. Hawks Odds
|Moneyline||+270 / -335|
|Time||Monday, 7:30 p.m. ET|
The last week of the NBA regular season is upon us, and there is still little set in stone for the playoffs. The Atlanta Hawks and Washington Wizards are two of the teams that have the potential to gain a lot with a hot streak to end.
Atlanta finds itself in a neck-and-neck race for the No. 4, No. 5 and No. 6 seeds. They are one game behind the Knicks for the fourth seed, but their schedule is much lighter than New York's. If they can take care of business they could gain home-court advantage in the first round. If they slip though, Miami could jump them and force Atlanta into a matchup against Brooklyn or Milwaukee.
The same blend of good and bad potential faces the Wizards. They sit in the ninth seed currently but are just a game-and-a-half back of Charlotte for eighth. This would make their road to the playoffs much easier, needing only to win one game in the play-in tournament. However, they are only a half-game ahead of the Pacers for 10th. This would force them to win back-to-back road playoff games to exit the play-in tournament.
Both teams have a lot on the line in this final week of the NBA season. Let’s dig further to see why the total might be the angle to take for this game.
For most of the season, it seemed the playoffs would not be in the Wizards’ grasp. They somehow found their stride at the perfect time, though, and have gone 14-5 in their past 19. Their success has been no fluke either — their Net Rating in their past 19 games is +5.9 per NBA.com, fifth in the league over that span.
The improvement for the Wizards has come in their scoring efficiency. Washington leads the league with a 50.3% field goal percentage during its hot run. This has helped guide the Wiz to their monstrous 125.0 points per game per NBA.com.
Leading the charge in this run has been the triple-double king, Russell Westbrook. In the past 19 games, Westbrook has kicked it into high gear, even for his standard, with 16 triple-doubles. This has his season-long numbers looking astronomical with 22.3 points, 14.0 rebounds, and 13.6 assists per game per NBA.com. He'll need to keep that level of play up in this game as the Wizards will be without Bradley Beal for the next two games, per our NBA Insiders tool.
Against the Hawks, another excellent performance could be in store for the Wizards. Atlanta’s defense ranks 22nd in Defensive Rating because of its struggles from stopping opponents in the midrange. This is where Washington focuses their scoring efforts as 67.9% of their shots come from 2-point range per basketball-reference.
Atlanta has been a completely different team at home versus on the road, especially in recent weeks. Since mid-April, the Hawks are 7-0 at home with an excellent 15.2 Net Rating per NBA.com. On the road, these numbers plummet to 0-5 and a -18.9 Net Rating.
This means ending in the fourth seed and getting home court in the first round is even more important for Atlanta. Fortunately, their last four games will be home games.
What makes this team so different at home is the play of its role players like Danilo Gallinari, Lou Williams and Clint Capela. All three shoot more than 10 percent better from the field when playing at home per NBA.com. While this is something Atlanta will need to remedy in the playoffs, they have the chance to reap its benefits until then.
While the role players need home court to find their rhythm, primary scorers Trae Young and Bogdan Bogdanovic consistently maintain their excellence. Expectations were high for Young coming into the year, but Bogdanovic has been a pleasant surprise.
Bogdanovic started the year as a pure shooter but has steadily been giving more responsibility in the offense and surpassed expectations at each turn. This has earned him the spot as Atlanta’s true second option and the same number of field goal attempts per game since mid-April as Young per NBA.com. Having two reliable options and a deep array of shooters makes this an intimidating offense, especially on their court.
If there is one thing the Wizards and Hawks have done right recently it is score. In their past five, the Wizards are averaging 135.2 points, and the Hawks average 128 in their past three games. It is no coincidence that all eight of those games have hit the over.
With little time left in the season and much on the line, both teams will be leaving everything they can on the floor. Washington, relying on Westbrook’s berserk style of play, will continue to do its best to keep the pace as fast as possible. After all, that style has paid off for them in recent weeks.
While this is not the style Atlanta typically looks to implore they could lean into it also. Their excellent shooting percentages at home and the Wizards’ poor 3-point defense could mean it rains 3s in State Farm Arena.
In a high-leverage game and both teams playing very well, it is hard to trust either to beat the spread. However, I think relying on both to play motivated and the Wizards to push the tempo makes this a high-scoring game.
Back the Wizards and Hawks to continue their hot offensive stretches and take the over.
Pick: Over 236.5 (Up to 238.5)