The Sacramento Kings (5-17) and Miami Heat (14-9) will face off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:00 p.m. EST from Kaseya Center in Miami, Fla. The game will be broadcast live on FDSSUN.
The Heat are 8-point favorites over the Kings on the spread (Heat -8), with the over/under set at 238.5 total points. Miami is a -330 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Sacramento is +260 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Kings vs. Heat predictions and NBA picks for Saturday, December 6.
My Kings vs Heat Prediction
- Kings vs Heat pick: Kings +8 (-110)
My Heat vs Kings best bet is on Sacramento to cover the spread, with the best price currently available at bet365. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Kings vs Heat Odds
| Kings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8 -110 | 238.5 -110o / -110u | +260 |
| Heat Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8 -110 | 238.5 -110o / -110u | -330 |
Kings vs Heat NBA Preview
On the surface, it’s a lopsided matchup: the Kings have dropped four straight — 112-100 to the Suns, 128-119 to the Jazz, 115-107 to the Grizzlies and, most recently, 121-95 to the Rockets on Wednesday — and sit second-to-last in the Western Conference at 5-17.
Still, Sacramento showed some encouraging signs in the loss to Houston. Maxime Raynaud and Malik Monk each scored 25 points, and the Kings actually took a 52-51 lead into halftime before the Rockets broke things open with a 10-0 run in the third quarter.
The defensive issues persisted, especially as Alperen Sengun poured in 20 second-half points, but Sacramento’s energy level was better than the final score suggested.
Miami, meanwhile, is dealing with its own issues — primarily fatigue. This will be the Heat’s fourth game in six days. They beat the Clippers 130-123 on Monday, then dropped games to Dallas (118-108) and Orlando (106-105), the latter ending on a Bam Adebayo jumper that rimmed out at the buzzer.
Adebayo still finished with 24 points and 15 rebounds, while Norman Powell scored 28 and kept Miami alive with late buckets.
The Heat were without Tyler Herro, who injured his right big toe Wednesday and remains day-to-day.
Kings vs Heat Prediction, Betting Analysis
This is exactly the kind of matchup where Evan Abrams’ “Fading Tired Home Teams” system becomes relevant.
Miami fits the profile of a home favorite running on fumes — multiple games in a tight window, defensive slippage, and an inflated spread shaped by market assumptions that home court compensates for accumulated wear.
In reality, teams in Miami’s situation consistently show slower rotations, weaker transition defense and diminished late-game execution.
Visiting teams with more rest and a clear focus often capitalize, outperforming expectations against the spread.
Sacramento has been struggling, but this spot favors the visitors more than the line suggests.
With Miami stretched thin and still adjusting without Herro, backing the Kings to stay within the number is the value side.
Pick: Kings +8 (-110)
Heat vs Kings Betting Trends
