Timberwolves vs. Knicks Updated Odds, Pick, Prediction: Betting Value on Over/Under
Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Julius Randle.
- The New York Knicks take on the Minnesota Timberwolves in Tuesday night NBA action.
- The Knicks have struggled offensively, while defense has been one of the Wolves' biggest strengths.
- Check out Joe Dellera's full betting guide and pick below.
Timberwolves vs. Knicks Odds
|Time||7:30 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.|
The Wolves will head to New York on Tuesday to take on the Knicks, who lost yesterday to the Hornets. Can the Knicks bounce back and sweep the season series?
Let’s break it down.
Minnesota is fairly healthy for this matchup, and it’s climbing back into the Western Conference playoff picture.
One of Minnesota’s strengths has been its defense. The Timberwolves have the eighth-best Adjusted Defensive Rating in the league. It’s a bit odd considering they allow so many 3-point attempts, but they’ve found a way to defend the 3-point line well. Opponents shoot just 34.3% from 3 against the Wolves, the seventh-best mark in the league, per Cleaning the Glass.
On the flip side, the Wolves have a potent offensive attack when Towns, Edwards, and Russell are all healthy and on the floor together, which was not the case when the Wolves fell to the Knicks in December and all three players missed.
When that trio shares the floor, the Wolves are +16 points per 100 possessions while scoring 117.7 and allowing just 101.7, per Cleaning the Glass. Those are elite numbers.
New York Knicks
The Knicks suffered a bad loss yesterday to the Hornets, who were without LaMelo Ball. For today’s matchup, the Knicks are again without Nerlens Noel. Kemba Walker is also questionable, but he’s been a bit of a mixed bag all season.
New York’s biggest struggle this season has been its offense. It owns the 24th-ranked Adjusted Offensive Rating in the league at 108.5, as it’s struggled to find any sort of rhythm on that side of the ball.
The Knicks play at a snail’s pace with a pace mark of 95.3, the slowest in the league, and watching their offensive attack at times can be absolutely painful.
The one good thing for New York is it takes a lot of 3s — on 39.1% of its shots, to be exact. It’s converted on those opportunities with the seventh-best 3-point percentage as a team, 36.6%.
The Knicks just do not have much of an identity this season, which has been an issue for them.
Both Julius Randle and RJ Barrett have regressed this season despite Barrett’s recent surge in production. They have lacked the same defensive tenacity that propelled them to the playoffs last season as well.
The Knicks need to right the ship as they make a playoff push.
The Timberwolves are looking to avenge their December loss to the Knicks tonight, but head coach Tom Thibodeau should have the Knicks prepared for a battle against his old team.
Although the Knicks have been one of the more profitable under teams this season, the Wolves have been more profitable to the over. In fact, this season, the Wolves are 15-6 to the over on the road.
They should be able to score against this Knicks defense, which has paled in comparison to last season’s.
On the flip side, the Knicks should get the looks they want against the Wolves. New York likes to take 3s, and Minnesota gives up those looks, particularly from the corner. This could be a good spot for Evan Fournier and Quentin Grimes, the Knicks’ two best corner 3 shooters.
Given the shot profile of the Knicks and the health of the Timberwolves’ offensive attack, I’ll back the over in New York despite the Knicks’ generally slow pace.
Pick: Over 213.5