Siena vs. Duke Odds & Betting Predictions - March 19, 2026

Brick laying

#Tailing @nick_giffen

Projecting 4.1

#EV

Duke is down Ngongba II, Foster, playing with a short bench for the foreseeable future. That reads to me like Scheyer being incentivized to reduce Boozer’s minutes in a blowout. Siena has a decent low-major interior defense, they’re not playing matador defense in the lane and they don’t foul very much. Late in the season, they inserted Riley Mulvey into the starting lineup, and the seven-footer has made a big difference. Pre-Mulvey logging starter minutes: Siena 93rd in 2PT Defense, 128th in Defensive Rebounding. With Mulvey over 34 minutes per game as a starter? Those numbers bump up to 2nd in 2PT Defense, 90th in Defensive Rebounding. Small sample size, but still an impressive improvement. Last year, Duke was a huge favorite over Mt St. Mary’s, and Flagg only played 22 minutes and scored 14 points. The year before that, Filipowski and McCain were their leading scorers, and in their Tournament opener against Vermont they produced 3 points and 15 respectively. In Scheyer’s first year, Filipowski scored 6 against Oral Roberts.

Duke ranks 99th percentile in guarding ball-handler out of P&R. That’s what Siena wants to do.

Will have this written up but this is a huge number for a limited possession game and not sure Duke will rush anybody back for R1. Just gotta defend without fouling since Siena has absolutely zero depth now. If so, can keep this within 25. Siena lives in midrange which is where Duke wants you and Coyle has found his shot again recently. Massive backdoor shot if needed too