2022 March Madness Predictions: Expert Projects Sweet 16 Teams’ Chances To Make Final Four, Win Championship

2022 March Madness Predictions: Expert Projects Sweet 16 Teams’ Chances To Make Final Four, Win Championship article feature image
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Getty Images. Pictured: Gonzaga’s Drew Timme, Arizona’s Bennedict Mathurin

March Madness rolls on with the Sweet 16 round of the 2022 NCAA Tournament, which tips off Thursday. With only four possible games remaining for each, what are each team's chances of advancing to the Final Four? And what about their chances of winning the national championship?

Based on the model from Director of Predictive Analytics Sean Koerner — whose brackets for the last two tournaments finished in the 99th and 95th percentiles on ESPN — the programs with the best chance to advance to the semifinals in New Orleans are unsurprisingly a pair of No. 1 seeds: Gonzaga (58.3%) and Kansas (15.1%).

The Zags' projected chances of winning the national championship (29.2%) are almost double those of the Jayhawks (15.1%), though.

Purdue (48.2%) has the third-best projected chance to reach the Final Four over Arizona (40.5%), thanks to the teams' respective Sweet 16 draws: Purdue faces the Cinderella of this year's tournament in No. 15 seed Saint Peter's, while Arizona takes on Houston. The Wildcats have the better chances of winning the title, though, with a 14.7% projection compared to the Boilermakers' 9.0% projection.

Below you'll find our expert's full projections for each surviving team, followed by comparisons of his Final Four and championship projections to odds at FanDuel as the Sweet 16 tips off.


March Madness Predictions

Below we've broken out our expert's projected chances for each Sweet 16 team to advance to the Final Four and win the national championship.

TeamElite EightFinal FourChampion
Gonzaga80.6%58.3%29.2%
Kansas73.8%57.0%15.1%
Arizona60.7%40.5%14.7%
Purdue84.1%48.2%9.0%
Villanova62.5%26.1%6.1%
Houston39.3%22.2%5.6%
UCLA59.0%30.7%4.9%
Texas Tech50.0%17.1%4.1%
Duke50.0%17.1%4.1%
UNC41.0%17.8%1.8%
Michigan37.5%11.3%1.5%
Providence26.2%14.3%1.1%
Arkansas19.4%7.6%1.1%
Iowa State51.8%15.2%1.0%
Miami48.2%13.4%0.8%
Saint Peter's15.9%3.3%0.1%

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Final Four Odds vs. Projections

TeamAction's ProjectionsFanDuel Odds
Gonzaga62.3% (-165)58.3%
Kansas66.7% (-200)57.0%
Arizona40% (+150)40.5%
Purdue57.5% (-135)48.2%
Villanova28.6% (+250)26.1%
Houston33.3% (+200)22.2%
UCLA31.3% (+220)30.7%
Texas Tech20% (+400)17.1%
Duke20% (+400)17.1%
UNC21.3% (+370)17.8%
Michigan10.5% (+850)11.3%
Providence13.3% (+650)14.3%
Arkansas9.1% (+1000)7.6%
Iowa State14.3% (+600)15.2%
Miami16.7% (+500)13.4%
Saint Peter's3.2% (+3000)3.3%


Championship Odds vs. Projections

TeamFanDuel OddsAction's Projections
Gonzaga29.4% (+240)29.2%
Kansas16.7% (+500)15.1%
Arizona13.3% (+650)14.7%
Purdue11.1% (+800)9.0%
Villanova7.1% (+1300)6.1%
Houston10.5% (+850)5.6%
UCLA6.3% (+1500)4.9%
Texas Tech6.3% (+1500)4.1%
Duke6.3% (+1500)4.1%
UNC3.0% (+3200)1.8%
Michigan1.5% (+6500)1.5%
Providence1.3% (+7500)1.1%
Arkansas2.0% (+5000)1.1%
Iowa State1.0% (+10000)1.0%
Miami1.4% (+7000)0.8%
Saint Peter's0.3% (+35000)0.1%
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Nick Sterling
Jul 19, 2024 UTC