The NCAA tournament tips Tuesday with the first of four play-in games. Villanova is the 4-1 favorite to win the championship, followed by Duke at 11-2 and Virginia at 6-1. UVA is the top overall seed in the bracket but are the Cavaliers undervalued by the betting market?

 

To find out, we ran 10,000 simulations of the 2018 NCAA tournament using our Bracket simulator. Then we compared each squad’s current odds to win the Big Dance to our projections. If a team has a higher projected chance to cut down the nets than implied probability, there is value placing a wager.

After running the numbers, we’ve pinpointed four teams that bettors should jump on before the tournament begins.

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model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game
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