Wednesday’s College Basketball Best Bets

The No. 1- and 2-ranked teams lost on the road last night in college basketball. Now on Wednesday, the No. 3-ranked team is heading on a conference road trip.

We have that and more in our college basketball best bets, including Three Man Weave's three picks for Wednesday, January 10. It's Ky McKeon's turn to shine!

College Basketball Best Bets

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

By Ky McKeon

UCF hosts its first ever home game as a Big 12 school, and what better team to host than the Kansas Jayhawks, the class of the best conference on planet Earth.

The Knights’ conference opener didn’t go as planned, as they quickly learned what being in the Big 12 was all about, losing by 25 at Kansas State. But home court hits different, and UCF should be able to hang with Kansas tonight with its tenacious defense.

UCF hangs its hat on the defensive end, ranking 25th nationally in Adjusted Efficiency Margin, per KenPom. The Knights are top-10 in defensive turnover rate and 14th in 2-point percentage defense.

Kansas is among the best ball movement teams in the country, but ultimately, it plays through the interior — whether that be Hunter Dickinson post-ups, KJ Adams Jr. duck-ins, Kevin McCullar Jr. attacking the rim or Dajuan Harris Jr. slicing and dicing off ball screens.

UCF has the size to combat KU’s attack, featuring a three-man 7-footer rotation of Ibrahima Diallo, Omar Payne and Thierno Sylla. Per Hoop-Math, UCF ranks 11th nationally in FG% allowed at the rim, and the Knights rank fourth nationally in block rate, per KenPom.

On the perimeter, UCF has the size and speed to bother a Kansas backcourt that's strangely been prone to turnovers this season. Against TCU, Kansas coughed up the rock 18 times on its own home floor. Now in a hostile environment where it'll absolutely get its opponents’ best shot, ball security is a top concern.

The question will be: Can UCF keep KU out of transition? If this turns into a track meet and the Jayhawks are allowed to run without consequence, it could get ugly.

UCF isn’t equipped offensively to outscore Kansas in a high-possession game. But if the Knights can limit run-outs, play physically on the offensive glass and get high-level performances from their talented guard and wing corps, they have a puncher’s chance to stay close tonight in Orlando.

Pick: UCF +8 (Play to +7)

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By Ky McKeon

Furman hasn’t been Furman the past several games, losing three straight, including one to a Division II opponent.

But there’s a reason for that: The Paladins have been gutted by injuries.

Leading scorer Marcus Foster went down back on December 2 and has missed the past seven games. Second-leading scorer JP Pegues missed two contests in that three-game losing skid, and third-leading scorer Alex Williams missed the UNCG game, bringing his total missed-game tally to five.

All in all, head coach Bob Richey has used a whopping 12 different starting lineups in just 15 games.

But with Pegues and Williams returning to the lineup last game, the Paladins are getting healthier. And their opponent tonight is trending in the opposite direction.

The Citadel has blown away expectations this year, getting two power-conference transfers along with another talented import will do that. But the almighty injury bug has bitten the Bulldogs bad.

Winston Hill, a load of a forward and one of The Citadel’s most important players, went down with a season-ending injury against Western Carolina. Sophomore wing AJ Smith has missed the last three contests, and it’s unclear when he'll return.

The Bulldogs severely lack depth, so missing two starters is a death sentence. In their first game without those two players, the Bulldogs lost by 16 at home to Samford and were down by as many as 25.

Furman has the juice to bust this game wide open, and it's due for some heavy positive shooting regression. The Paladins are shooting just 30% from deep this year, a far cry from what their personnel is capable of.

On the flip side, opponents are shooting over 35% from deep against them, which is a bit unlucky given how Richey teams typically take away the perimeter.

Pick: Furman -11 (Play to -12)

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By Ky McKeon

Murray State has been a meteoroid the past three games, shooting 43% from deep and averaging over 80 points per contest despite not playing a single game over 70 possessions.

But like all meteoroids, Murray is sure to burn up soon.

There’s no better place to do that than on the road in the Missouri Valley, where the Racers have struggled mightily during their short stint in the league.

Murray’s recent win at Evansville was just its fourth Valley road win in 12 tries. The Racers were 3-7 on the road last season in conference play, with two wins coming against arguably the two worst teams in the league.

Overall, Murray was 3-11 on the road last season and has started 1-4 this year. While they hold a massive home court advantage, the Racers are anything but road warriors.

Missouri State is on a two-game skid, as injuries and poor shooting have reared their ugly heads. But the Bears are usually great at home, and they smoked Murray by 15 in Springfield last year.

Health is improving for Missouri State with point guard Matthew Lee back in the fold, although it’s unclear if Damien Mayo Jr. — a role player and starter on the wing — will play tonight. With or without Mayo, the Bears should be able to cover the relatively short spread.

Shooting variance should tilt in Missouri State’s favor, as it won’t shoot sub-26% from deep in league play forever, and the Racers can’t keep up their recent stretch.

The Bears should find success tonight in the paint against a soft Racers middle. Star player Donovan Clay averaged 16.5 points and 7.0 rebounds in two contests last year against Murray and will be the focal point again in this one.

Pick: Missouri State -4.5 (Play to -5)

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