NCAAB Best Bets for Saturday

No. 13 Baylor vs. No. 4 Kansas and a battle of bluebloods (Gonzaga vs. Kentucky) highlight our Saturday college basketball slate.

But while those two games take center stage, there's tremendous betting value elsewhere in the sport.

Dive in below for college basketball best bets and odds, including our staff's three top picks for Saturday, February 10.

College Basketball Best Bets

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

By D.J. James

The Florida Gators have a chance for a massive upset on Saturday at home against the Auburn Tigers, but Bruce Pearl’s team might just be that good. The Tigers just crushed Alabama by double digits, which would usually indicate a trap line forthcoming.

Auburn has several edges in key metrics for this matchup.

For one, Florida doesn't take many 3s, while Auburn has an even distribution of inside and outside shooting. Florida’s 3-point defense is pretty rough (opponents are shooting over 33%), but it can limit the amount of attempts an opponent will take from outside.

Both teams have a similar hit rate from beyond the perimeter, but Auburn is holding opponents to less than 30% from 3-point distance.

Auburn is also phenomenal at finishing at the rim, while Florida lags behind on both offense and defense.

Florida likely will be able to manufacture points on offensive rebounds, but otherwise, Auburn has an edge when it comes to shooting the ball.

The Tigers can get to the free-throw line. Florida does so less often, but the Gators are the home team, so they could hold a slight edge on free-throw attempts. However, Auburn shoots nearly 77% as a unit from the line, while Florida shoots less than 69%. The Tigers might hit more free throws with fewer chances.

Auburn is the more well-rounded defense and boasts a top-10 defense and offense. Florida struggles on the interior, so Johni Broome could have a significant impact.

Take the Tigers to -3.5.

Pick: Auburn -1.5 (Play to -3.5)

By Mike McNamara

For the past two and a half years, Texas A&M has delivered in primetime games at Reed Arena.

Buzz Williams has a way of getting his teams up for these types of battles, and I don’t expect Saturday to be any different.

Wade Taylor IV is the type of guard that can will a team to victory, and the veteran has also been at his best on the biggest stages.

The spot is a good one as well.

The Vols enter this one fresh off a monster road win at Kentucky followed by a thrashing of LSU at home.

Meanwhile, Texas A&M will be playing for a chance to put itself off the bubble and squarely into the NCAA tournament field.

Look for A&M to crash the offensive boards hard just as it has all year, giving itself multiple second chance opportunities.

I think this one comes all the way down to the wire, so I'll gladly back the home Aggies catching four points.

Gig 'Em!

Pick: Texas A&M +4 (Play to +3)

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By Tanner McGrath

Everything went right for the Broncos the last time they played the Aggies.

Boise State shot 9-of-28 (32%) from 3 and held Utah State to 6-of-23 (26%). Boise’s positional-size-leverage post-up offense scored 23 points on 20 post-up possessions (1.15 PPP) against a vulnerable interior defense.

Boise’s volleyball offensive rebounding unit dominated Utah State’s stout defensive rebounders, scoring 18 second-chance points on 14 offensive boards. Boise’s rock-solid post-up defense contained MWC POY candidate Great Osobor to 3-of-5 shooting with seven turnovers.

And the Broncos still lost on their home floor, 90-84, in overtime.

Boise State is in a much worse spot now.

While the Aggies are in a home-court bounce-back mode after consecutive losses to two excellent teams (San Diego State and Nevada), the Broncos are prepping to play their second straight road game at high altitude with a short rotation – they rank 307th in bench minutes, lost to Colorado State in Fort Collins (5,000 feet of elevation) on Tuesday and play in Logan on Saturday (4,800 feet).

And just because everything went right for Boise in the first matchup doesn’t mean everything went wrong for Utah State.

The Aggies are a dominant cut-and-post rim-based offense that dominated a vulnerable Broncos interior defense.

Behind Osobor’s 19 points per game on 60% shooting, Utah State is shooting a Mountain West-best 57% from 2-point range in conference play, and its 41 paint points per game rank second only to New Mexico’s 42.

I think Boise’s roster construction is a problem against Danny Sprinkle’s scheme. Leon Rice values switchability and versatility over anything else, starting four players standing between 6-foot-5 and 6-foot-8.

But standing 6-foot-8 across your frontcourt leaves you vulnerable to big-boy bully-ball rim-running offenses. The Broncos are among the worst defenses at defending cutters (1.36 PPP allowed, 350th nationally) and allow over 31 paint points per game.

As a result, the Aggies scored 17 points on 15 cuts (1.13 PPP), nine on 13 post-up sets (.75 PPP) and 18 points on 15 transition run-outs (1.2 PPP) en route to 38 paint points on 23-for-27 (62%) 2-point shooting against the Broncos.

They scored 22 points on 11-for-13 shooting from point-blank and dominated the entire painted area.

I don’t think Boise matches up well with Utah State, which explains a home-court loss despite near-perfect game-plan execution.

It was an entirely different schematic matchup, so take this with a grain of salt, but Utah State swept Boise last year when Ryan Odom was still in town. The Broncos might be spooked by the Aggies.

I’m also considering this a good regression play.

Utah State hasn’t made a shot all year, shooting only 31% from 3 when ShotQuality projects the Aggies closer to 34% based on the “quality” of attempts.

Meanwhile, Boise State opponents are shooting only 28% from 3 in conference play, despite the Broncos ranking eighth among 11 Mountain West teams in Open 3 Rate Allowed and 292nd nationally in High Quality 3s Allowed.

More Utah State shots should fall, and more shots should fall against Boise State.

Hopefully, that happens here in a tremendous situational and schematic spot on the Aggies’ home court against the potentially gassed and depthless Broncos.

The ShotQualityBets model projects Utah State as a 10-point home favorite over Boise State, and I tend to agree, as I think the Aggies win by double-digits to stand pat atop the Mountain West standings.

I was shocked when the markets opened Utah State -3.5, as I expected they’d price in a good situational spot. So, with how cheap we’re getting the Aggies, this is my Saturday smash spot.

Pick: Utah State -3.5 (Play to -5)