College Basketball Futures, Picks: Best NCAA Tournament Title Bets to Make Right Now

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Jennifer Stewart/Getty Images. Pictured: Filip Petrusev #3 of the Gonzaga Bulldogs

  • Offensive and defensive efficiency metrics have highlighted Kansas, Baylor, Duke and three other college basketball teams as national championship contenders.
  • Using The Action Network simulations, we determine if there is value betting these squads to win the NCAA tournament.

One way to identify true college basketball title contenders is to look at efficiency metrics. By correlating KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency (AdjO), adjusted defensive efficiency (AdjD) and adjusted efficiency margin (AdjEM) metrics with NCAA tournament performance, we found that well-balanced teams are more successful in the postseason.

Teams capable of winning the national championship usually have an AdjEM score of 23.81 or higher. These same teams also have AdjO scores of 114.0 or higher and an AdjD score of 96.2 or lower.

Using these criteria, six teams currently qualify as title contenders.

So we’ve highlighted potential teams to cut down the nets, but do any of these squads have betting value to win the NCAA tournament?

To determine if a team is a good bet we looked at what its current odds are to win the NCAA championship at PointsBet and compared that to our projected odds based on 10,000 simulations of Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology.

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