College Basketball Odds, Best Bets | 5 Picks for Saturday Afternoon’s Conference Tournament Games (March 9)

Welcome to the first college basketball conference tournament Saturday of the season. With a mix of top-tier regular-season action and meaningful conference tournament games, this is one of the best slates of the year.

So, our staff came prepared.

Our college basketball writers broke down five best bets for Saturday's afternoon conference tourney games for those looking to bet the early action. Then, they'll come through with their picks for Saturday evening's slate.

That means whether you're looking to sweat a few games to wake yourself up or you want to have some action on the late-night madness, we have you covered.

Read on for all five of our best bets for Saturday afternoon's conference tournament games — and be sure to check back for our Saturday evening picks as well.

Pre-registration is live for the best North Carolina sports betting apps! Register for bonus offers before the state launches on March 11.

College Basketball Conference Tournament Best Bets

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from Saturday's afternoon conference tournament games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

By Jim Root

The Big South semifinals feature a peculiar twist to the way this game is lined.

High Point is hosting the entire tournament at the sparkling new Qubein Center. Thus, these are technically home games for the Panthers.

However, two of the most prominent projection sites, KenPom and BartTorvik, are showing this as a neutral-site game. That means showing a lower projected spread — -4 per KenPom and -5.2 per Torvik — than what the market is offering.

I believe there’s value in that way of thinking. More Longwood fans will be at this tournament game than a typical road game, and the Lancers just played on this floor yesterday. Obviously, there's no travel element.

Longwood also beat High Point in the regular-season finale, although that game meant nothing for the top-seeded Panthers. They had already clinched an outright season title.

Still, it offers positive indicators as to how Longwood can compete. The Lancers owned the class, and their stout perimeter players helped to somewhat neutralize HPU’s relentless downhill rim attack off the dribble. HPU only has one Kimani Hamilton, while Longwood has a multitude of bigger wing options.

Considering the line implies full home-court advantage, I think the dog has value here. That's amplified by Longwood having the roster structure necessary to compete with HPU.

Pick: Longwood +7.5 (Play to +6)

By Sean Paul

Let’s head to the Northeast Conference semifinals, where newly NCAA Tournament-eligible Merrimack faces the non-eligible Le Moyne Dolphins. I’m rolling with the Warriors laying 7.5 points.

Merrimack is consistently one of the better defenses in the sport under head coach Joe Gallo. The Warriors pressure the ball with intense effort, forcing turnovers on 23% of defensive possessions.

The other thing Merrimack is great at? Not allowing 3-point attempts, which is Le Moyne’s style of play under Nate Champion.

The Dolphins love shooting 3s in a modern five-out offense, but it’ll be tested against Merrimack.

It just feels like a nightmare matchup for Champion’s squad, which suffered a pair of regular-season losses against plucky Merrimack.

While Merrimack is mostly offensive-deprived, a trio of guards can keep Gallo’s offense upright. Jordan Derkack won NEC Player of the Year, while freshman Adam “Budd” Clark is a tough point guard and Devon Savage is a perimeter marksman.

That’s a strong trio for the 318th-ranked offense in college basketball.

Pick: Merrimack -7.5 (Play to -9)

The must-have app for college basketball bettors

The best NCAAB betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

DOWNLOAD NOW

By Jim Root

The Sun Belt’s top seed could get a close game far earlier than it bargained for in Pensacola. App State and Georgia Southern have met twice this season, and the lower-seeded Eagles made both harrowing ordeals.

In the first clash in Boone, GSU trailed by six with seven minutes to play. App State kept the visitors at arm’s length down the stretch, but the Eagles managed a respectable 10-point defeat.

Things got even closer in Statesboro. The feisty Eagles led narrowly for most of the second half and eventually forced overtime. The Mountaineers needed a Donovan Gregory bucket with nine seconds left in the extra period to escape with a victory.

Shockingly, Georgia Southern has been the rare team to “solve” the Mountaineers’ elite interior defense. In the two prior contests, the Eagles shot 50-for-91 (54.9%) inside the arc against a unit that allowed a 43.2% conversion rate in league play, the Sun Belt’s top mark.

For a team that started 0-12 this season, that's a remarkable accomplishment.

Perhaps it's less surprising, though, when considering how highly regarded first-year coach Charlie Henry is. Henry is a former Nate Oats assistant at Alabama, and unsurprisingly, GSU ranks 32nd nationally in Rim & 3 Rate, per ShotQuality.

For one extra small edge, GSU has played on this Pensacola court already. The Eagles also had a day off after their 76-71 triumph on Thursday, meaning there should be no concern about facing a more well-rested foe.

Pick: Georgia Southern +13.5 (Play to +11)

By Tanner McGrath

For context, the higher seed hosts the America East Tournament, so this game will be played at Patrick Gymnasium in Burlington. I just received my media credentials for the tournament games, so I’ll actually be covering Vermont’s hopeful dominance from press row.

So, let’s start with a little lesson on America East history.

Over the past decade, the league has been primarily focused on defense and shot selection, as well as fundamentals, rebounding and ball handling with a methodical pace.

Last season, the America East ranked 20th among 32 conferences in tempo. It was 28th in the two years prior and 31st in 2019.

However, Bryant's realignment and coaching changes at New Hampshire, UMBC and NJIT have changed the league’s composition.

Bryant runs a transition-on-steroids attack. Jim Ferry has bought into the quick pace, dribble penetration and shot creation provided by his new-look backcourt. Dwayne Killings has slowly upped the Great Danes’ pace of play, recruiting some of the most dynamic offensive playmakers in recent AmEast history.

As a result, the America East ranks first in tempo this year, averaging over 70 possessions per game. Three conference squads rank top-10 nationally in tempo, another ranks in the top 25 and another sits in the top 60. Four squads average double-digit fastbreak points per game.

The league has adopted an uptempo, attack-at-all-costs, play-no-defense style, which is pretty fun to watch.

Still, the more things change, the more they stay the same.

Vermont won its eighth straight regular-season title behind a 15-1 conference record, and the primary reason why is that John Becker stood pat in the face of change.

The Cats run a five-out motion perimeter-based offense that eschews offensive rebounds in favor of getting back on defense, and the Catamounts have been a consistently dominant transition denial defense in the Becker era.

So, all of these new-look, transition-reliant offenses can’t generate offense against the America East kings, who stifle everyone else’s offensive identity at the outset.

The league ran right into Becker’s hands.

And one of those teams is Albany.

The Danes lead the league in fastbreak points per game (14) and rank second in points per game (39) while ranking sixth nationally in tempo (73). And they’re good at what they do, ranking third in the league in offensive efficiency behind quick-twitch guard Sebastian Thomas and the explosive wing trio of Amar’e Marshall, Tyler Bertram and Aaron Reddish.

But, predictably, Vermont leads the nation in fastbreak points per game allowed (five) while pacing the America East in paint points per game allowed (30) and 2-point shooting allowed (45%).

So, Vermont held Albany to two of its three lowest paint-point performances of the conference season in two meetings while keeping the Danes to 0.69 transition PPP.

The last time Albany played up at Patrick, it scored zero fastbreak points and 30 paint points in a 22-point loss.

But things are even more concerning on the other end of the court.

The Danes are arguably the worst America East defense I’ve seen across the past decade.

They actually got quite lucky on that end this season, with opponents shooting under 30% from 3 despite ranking last in the conference in Open-3 Rate Allowed.

They play a drop-coverage defense scheme that effectively denies 3-point shots — they scheme ball-handlers on the perimeter and wings, instead funneling them toward a rim protector who sags in the paint  — but still allow almost 10 unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers per game.

But, honestly, the interior defense was so porous that any 3-point variance, regression, non-regression or whatever doesn’t matter.

Albany center and defending America East Rookie of the Year Jonathan Beagle left the program for personal reasons in early February, forcing Killings to play the 6-foot-7 Marshall at the five. He tried to compensate for zero rim protection or rebounding with quick-twitch, small-ball lineups.

But it didn’t work, as Albany lost 8-of-10 down the stretch. The Danes allowed 44 paint points per game on 60% shooting from 2-point range.

As a result, Albany ranks sub-320th nationally in rim PPP allowed (1.25) while allowing the most at-the-rim field goal attempts per game.

The Great Danes are terrible against roll men (1.19 PPP allowed, second-to-last), cutters (1.35 PPP allowed, last in AmEast by 0.15), and other secondary actions designed to attack the rim.

That’s a huge problem against Vermont, which heavily utilizes those actions when 3-point shots aren’t open — and it does so quite effectively. The Cats lead the league in cutting PPP (1.32) and 2-point shooting (55%) while ranking third in roll-man PPP (1.08).

So, combined across two head-to-head matchups, Vermont scored a whopping 49 points on 29 cutting and roll-man sets — an insane 1.7 PPP – en route to 86 paint points on over 70% 2-point shooting.

As mentioned, the Danes lost by 22 the last time they played up in Burlington, and that was with Beagle.

I don’t see them keeping it within 20 this time, even if Matt Veretto and TJ Hurley aren’t available. The Danes went 6-9 against the spread on the road, anyway.

Pick: Vermont -14 (Play to -15)

By Sean Paul

The Enterprise Center in St. Louis is notorious for making shooting a difficult task. My guess is the rims are super hard, which leads to some loud clanks and unfriendly bounces. The different shooting conditions have led to a ton of unders — only UIC and Missouri State went over the total, but it took multiple overtime periods.

In general, Northern Iowa isn’t a good shooting team, connecting on 34% of perimeter jumpers. The Panthers went 4-of-18 from 3 in their quarterfinal win over Belmont, but Tytan Anderson’s 19 rebounds vaulted Northern Iowa to a win.

It’s been a strange year for second-leading scorer Bowen Born. The smooth guard averaged over 20 points last season but sits at 13.3 per game this year. He’s shooting only 31% from 3, which contributes to Northern Iowa’s shooting woes.

Onto the Sycamores side, Indiana State went just 10-of-30 from 3 in its dominant win over Missouri State. That’s significantly off from its 39% season average from downtown, but the Sycamores' scoring ability inside led them to a win.

That could be the style Josh Schertz leans on for a bid to the conference title game.

Sometimes, you just have to follow trends. The Enterprise Center under trend isn’t a new thing, and the early-round Arch Madness games are showing why that’s reality.

While Indiana State is more than capable of scoring 80-plus, it feels like a lofty task if it shoots around 30% from deep again.

In the lone regular-season showdown, Indiana State snuck out with a 77-66 victory. It was a lower-scoring road game, and Northern Iowa shot 1-of-15 from 3 compared to ISU’s 15-of-34.

Surely, some regression on both ends is expected from the first game.

Pick: Under 151 (Play to 150)

Everything you need to bet like a PRO!

Eye-popping betting model edges

Sharp action signals for every slate

Player prop picks bursting with value

GO PRO NOW!