College Basketball Odds & Pick for Creighton vs. Butler: Sharps, Systems Agree on Big East Spread (Saturday, Jan. 16)
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College Basketball Odds: Creighton vs. Butler
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As you might expect, No. 8 Creighton has been given a pretty substantial edge in the betting market over an unranked Butler team that’s put up a 2-5 in-conference record to this point.
But while the Bluejays are 8-point favorites as of writing, the spread was actually even larger when it was first released. Our PRO Report reveals how sharp betting action has helped bring this number down, and a pair of PRO System matches suggest there’s good reason for the move sharps are making.
Note: Odds, data as of 10:30 a.m. ET.
College Basketball Pick: Creighton vs. Butler
Big bets from professional bettors have been landing on the home team, and history looks to be on that side as well.
While betting percentages can certainly change as the day rolls along (and generally they tend to regress toward 50-50), it’s worth noting that Butler has attracted only 19% of bets as of writing. Despite that, the Bulldogs’ spread has fallen from +9 to +8, which should tell you something about the type of bettor among that 19%.
Confirming that indication has been a Bet Signal from Action Labs, triggered by a market-wide line move caused specifically by sharp action. In this case, that signal came on Butler at a line of +8.5.
Sharp Action edge: Butler
Once again, I’ll preface this section with the disclaimer that betting percentages are likely to change as tipoff approaches. But in any case, perhaps the most eye-catching market element of this matchup has been the difference between bets and money landing on each side.
Specifically, the 19% backing of Butler has generated an impressive 84% of actual money hitting the spread. That means the Bulldogs are attracting much, much bigger bettors — the ones more likely to come from sharps.
Big Money edge: Butler
History suggests sharps are on the right side, too.
The former has returned a win rate of 57% on a sample of more than 750 games, and the latter has hit at a 55% clip on a sample of more than 3,300.
PRO Systems edge: Butler