College Basketball Odds, Pick for New Mexico vs Wyoming

The New Mexico Lobos are hoping to end their decade-long NCAA tournament drought. A month ago, that seemed like a lock, but New Mexico is firmly on the NCAA tournament bubble following a home loss against Boise State last week.

While the loss hurts, it's more about the Lobos' lack of premier wins. UNM's two best victories came at home against San Diego State and Utah State. Both are really good teams, but neither is the type of win that will secure them in the eyes of the committee.

While beating a clear non-tournament team won't put New Mexico closer to the Big Dance, avoiding another loss will.

Here's college basketball odds and a pick for New Mexico vs. Wyoming.

Coach Richard Pitino deploys the eighth-fastest tempo in college hoops, according to KenPom's Adjusted Tempo metric. He wants his team to push the pace and make the game a full-court battle.

Most of the success in upping the tempo comes from getting defensive stops. Once the Lobos secure the rebound, guards Donovan Dent and Jaelen House zoom down the court, which is where those two are most comfortable.

UNM's defense ranks 24th in Defensive Efficiency, so that's the best element of this year's Lobos squad.

Moreover, most people didn't see Dent and JT Toppin as New Mexico's two most valuable players, but it's been a great reality. Dent has assumed the point guard role from House, and he's flourished, averaging 15 points and five assists per game.

Toppin came in as a heralded freshman and won the starting power forward role over Mustapha Amzil and Isaac Mushila. Toppin is a steady presence on both ends, averaging 12 points and eight rebounds with over 3.0 stocks (steals & blocks) per game.

The one thing Toppin isn't great at is shooting the ball. He's only attempted 21 3s all season.

I have some concerns about the Lobos' lack of shooting, as Toppin, Nelly Junior Joseph and Dent don't shoot it much. Three of five starters seldom shoot it or are complete non-shooters. That puts getting out in transition and pushing the pace a must instead of being a bonus.

While New Mexico's shooting is questionable, Wyoming is a much better-shooting squad. The Cowboys connect on 36% of their 3s, which propelled them to huge wins over Colorado State and Nevada in Laramie.

That's where Wyoming plays this game, so can the Cowboys pull a trifecta of home upsets?

Jeff Linder's team has a pair of dominant scoring options from the guard position in Sam Griffin (17.9 PPG) and Akuel Kot (15.9 PPG).

Kot and Griffin form one of the best scoring duos in the Mountain West. Griffin has a feel for the big games, scoring 22+ points in contests against Colorado State, Nevada and San Diego State. He won't shy away from the challenge of facing the Lobos' tough guards.

The Cowboys lose the ball on 20% of their offensive possessions, ranking 330th in turnover percentage. That's a serious concern against New Mexico's rampant pace. If you're losing the ball and letting the UNM guards run, it's a possible lost cause.

In addition to Wyoming's turnover woes, another issue is defensive consistency. The Cowboys rank 225th in Defensive Efficiency, one of the worst marks in the Mountain West. Opponents connect on 54.4% of 2-point field goals against Wyoming, which ranks 323rd in college hoops.

Wyoming has to slow the pace down. Linder prefers a slower tempo anyway, as the Cowboys sit at 225th in Adjusted Tempo.

While New Mexico can blow teams out, this game feels like a tough spot for it. Playing in Laramie is one of the toughest environments in the conference due to the high altitude and the Cowboys' comfort of playing in front of their home crowd.

Grabbing 10 points at the opener is too good to pass on.

I would take Wyoming down to nine points at home.

Pick: Wyoming +10 (Play to +9)