Northwestern vs Rutgers Odds, Pick: Back the Wildcats?

The Northwestern Wildcats took a blow on the chin when it was announced that Ty Berry tore his meniscus and would miss the rest of the season. Berry has been a potent part of this offense and is the best 3-point shooter on the team.

Traveling to the “RAC” or Jersey Mike’s Arena in Piscataway, New Jersey is typically a nightmare for opponents. Despite having one of the worst offenses in the country, Rutgers torched Wisconsin on Saturday.

The market isn't favorable for the Wildcats, but this line does not credit how good this offense has been in conference play.

Northwestern is the best 3-point shooting teams in both the Big Ten and the country. Berry was a tremendous piece of that, so Jordan Clayton and/or Nick Martinelli will have to step up into his place.

Northwestern doesn't hurt itself. The Wildcats have one of the best offensive turnover rates in the country and turn over opponents quite often. On the other end of the floor, Rutgers can turn over opponents, but has issues maintaining control of the ball. Northwestern should own the turnover margin in this matchup.

Now, Rutgers' defense is holding opponents to the second-best Open 3 Rate in the country, per Shot Quality. Opponents are shooting a touch over 30% on the Scarlet Knights, but Rutgers yields a ton of 3s. Northwestern likes to move the ball inside and out, but the Wildcats are shooting almost 40%. Boo Buie, Brooks Barnhizer and Ryan Langborg can each torch the Rutgers defense. Northwestern ranks 202nd in offensive Open 3 Rate, so they are used to taking difficult 3s and knocking them down.

Rutgers has one of the worst offenses in the country, but one of the best defenses. They are shooting 29% from 3, 43.7% from 2 and 66% from the free-throw line. The Scarlet Knights don't take many 3s, but that could help because Northwestern’s strength is in its guards. Opponents are shooting almost 36% on the Wildcats, who give up plenty of 3-point opportunities, but Rutgers likely won't take advantage.

Rutgers manufactures most of its points on the interior, but ranks 272nd in points per possession at the rim.

Northwestern is much better with defensive rebounding than offensive rebounding. The Scarlet Knights can't rebound defensively, but will make some put-backs.

Rutgers loves to default to the mid-range jumper or the post-up. Northwestern is better at guarding the mid-range, but not necessarily the post-up.

Northwestern is the better team and has shooters who can hit 3s. Rutgers has a phenomenal defense, but doesn't have the offensive wherewithal to trade 2s for 3s. Take Buie and the Wildcats to a pick ‘em because they have shown enough defensively to offset any shortcomings.

Pick: Northwestern +2.5 (Play to PK)