NCAAB Odds, Pick for BYU vs Oklahoma State

The BYU Cougars face a potentially dangerous matchup in Stillwater against the scuffling Oklahoma State Cowboys. There's no cakewalk games in the Big 12 Conference, so expect a fun game either way.

Here's NCAAB odds and a pick for BYU vs. Oklahoma State.

BYU is having a phenomenal first season in the Big 12, sitting at 18-6 overall and 6-5 in conference play. That’s nothing to scoff at in this league.

That said, BYU has looked shaky recently, nearly blowing two huge leads against Kansas State and UCF at home. The Cougars got pummeled by Oklahoma in Norman the game prior.

The primary reason for BYU’s surprising surge is shooting from beyond the arc. The Cougars attempt the fourth-most 3s in college hoops (50% of field goals), connecting on 36% of those attempts.

Jaxson Robinson is the team's top scorer, despite coming off the bench. He plays a super sixth-man role and is a huge part of BYU's high-powered offense.

Elsewhere, Trevin Knell, Noah Waterman and Spencer Johnson play integral roles. Both Waterman and Knell are 40% shooters, but Johnson is down from 46% to 30% from 3 this season.

You see how good BYU's offense is already — could you imagine how good the offense looks with Johnson shooting well?

I’m not sure there’s a bigger gap between a team’s general perception and metrics than BYU. While KenPom labels the Cougars as the 14th-best team in college hoops, I don’t think anyone thinks of them that highly.

That's not to say BYU isn't an awesome team. The Cougars know how to play connected and wins games as a unit while playing their style. Sometimes that's more important than pure talent.

BYU's defense has shown some issues during conference play. Since January 1, BYU's defense ranks 57th in America, according to Bart Torvik. That's a tremendous regression from the non-conference slate and is the prime reason for the Cougars' streaky performances.

Following another inconsistent season, Mike Boynton Jr.'s job is in serious danger. The seat is getting warmer as the days roll on.

Oklahoma State has made just one NCAA tournament appearance under Boynton, and it just so happened to come with Cade Cunningham, who isn't the type of player Oklahoma State traditionally lands.

Oklahoma State started conference play at 0-6 this season, but it's shown signs of promise lately. It pulled off wins over West Virginia and Kansas State and nearly grabbed an upset victory in a rivalry game against Oklahoma this week.

The biggest issue for Oklahoma State is a lack of identity. On paper, Oklahoma State doesn't have shooters, yet the Cowboys shoot a ton of 3s.

This is similar to BYU, but the Cougars actually shoot it well. That's not the case for Oklahoma State, which shoots only 34% from 3. Javon Small is the only player shooting above 38% from 3 for the Cowboys.

Additionally, the Cowboys' offense won't win them games; it needs a dazzling defensive performance to win conference games. That's the usual DNA of Boynton-coached teams, and this year is no exception. Oklahoma State ranks 86th in defensive efficiency, which isn't great, but is far better than its offensive numbers.

Small is an important player in Oklahoma State's attack, posting 14.2 points and 4.6 assists per contest. He has the ball often and really dictates whether the Cowboys' possession will succeed or not.

Bryce Thompson suffering a season-ending injury robbed the Cowboys of one of their two experienced guards.

In his place, freshman Jamyron Keller has shown promise, but he's a freshman. Keller has played 19+ minutes in three consecutive games after rarely playing before.

Although Keller is promising, inserting Jarius Hicklen into the lineup would benefit more in the short-term. Hicklen is shooting close to 40% from downtown, so he'll need to play a role in this one.

Moreover, Oklahoma State opponents only shoot 3s on 31% of possessions, which is vastly different than BYU's offensive philosophy. Something has to give. Will BYU still shoot its traditional allotment of triples, or will Oklahoma State force the Cougars into taking tough 2s? How that goes could dictate how the game flows.

Earlier in this guide, I discussed Oklahoma State playing better recently. I think the Cowboys carry that strong play into a huge home game that could dictate whether the season finishes strong or not.

While BYU is a fantastic team, playing on the road is difficult, regardless of the opponent.

Catching over seven points at home against a slightly overrated team feels like a great spot to me.

Hopefully, there's not a home letdown following an intense rivalry game in Norman, but that shouldn't be the case.

Pick: Oklahoma State +7.5 (Play to +6.5)