NC State vs Pitt Pick & Prediction: Pack to Cover?

NC State takes on Pitt on Saturday, March 9, at 7:45 p.m. ET on The CW. Here's an NC State vs Pitt pick and prediction.

Jeff Capel has strung together back-to-back winning seasons at Pitt, turning around a team that went 0-18 in ACC play the year before he took over.

The Panthers are 11-8 in ACC play this year, although they need a few extra wins – likely in the ACC tournament – to make a real push for an at-large bid. They’re firmly on the bubble.

Pitt should be able to handle NC State, which has flailed down the stretch, losing six of the past eight.

But I think the spread is a tad high, especially when considering the schematic matchup.

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At its best, NC State is a half-decent basketball team.

DJ Horne is among the conference’s best point guards. He averages 17 points per game with two assists and a steal, and he’s a very steady ball-handler who loves to push pace.

Pair him with big man DJ Burns, and the Wolfpack have a solid inside-out duo. Burns is a low-block merchant, averaging eight paint points per game while posting up more than any player nationally.

And that’s the Wolfpack’s entire offense – pace-and-post.

While they’re not overly effective in the post (.85 PPP, 12th among ACC teams), they’re much better in the open court (13 fast-break points per game, first; 1.13 PPP, third). Still, they’re 13th in the ACC in 2-point shooting with a pedestrian 47%.

On the other hand, NC State boasts an aggressive defense that presses at the second-highest rate in the ACC, forcing turnovers to fuel its transition-heavy offense. Unfortunately, that leaves the Pack vulnerable on the glass, where they rank 14th in defensive rebounding rate.

Capel has turned Pitt around in a few ways.

Offensively, the Panthers are a steady ball-handling squad behind the backcourt of Carlton Carrington, Ishmael Leggett, and Jaland Lowe. They leverage that backcourt in perimeter pick-and-roll sets.

That steady ball-handling will be key in this matchup with the press-happy Wolfpack, but the good news is that the Panthers aren’t useless against heavy on-ball pressure (.95 PPP, 70th percentile).

Ultimately, the Panthers either let it fly (first in ACC in 3-point rate), dish the ball on the hard roll (second in roll-man frequency), hunt a mismatch (first in isolation frequency), or crash the boards off misses (third in offensive rebounding rate).

Stretch four Blake Hinson has been Pitt's savior this year, averaging 19 points per game on 43% 3-point shooting. The Panthers rank 12th in the ACC in 2-point shooting (48%) and struggle to get to and produce at the charity stripe, so he must keep hitting shots if they want to make a tournament run.

Defensively, Pitt is vulnerable on the interior, ranking 11th in the ACC in 2-point shooting allowed (52%), 13th in post-up PPP allowed (.98), and 11th in free-throw rate allowed. The Panthers have some great versatile, lengthy frontcourt pieces, including Hinson, Federiko Federiko and Guillermo Diaz Graham. Still, they all struggle on the defensive end.

However, part of that is because Pitt plays a passive defense focusing more on cleaning the boards than pressing ball-handlers, partially explaining their struggles in ball-screen coverage (.87 PPP allowed, second-to-last in ACC).

N.C. State kept the game within three at home the last time these two played after Pitt closed as a three-point ‘dog.

But now the line has flipped significantly, and I think the market has way over-adjusted to Pitt’s winning ways and NC State’s losing ones.

The ShotQualityBets model projects the Wolfpack as only five-point road ‘dogs at Pitt on Saturday, so I can’t explain the seven-point line.

The Panthers struggle to defend on the interior, especially against post-up sets and ball screens, so Horne and Burns should eat here – just as they did in the last head-to-head matchup when the duo combined for 44 points.

Additionally, the Panthers might struggle to shoot the rock against NC State’s perimeter-oriented defense, which ranks third in the ACC in terms of the 3-point rate allowed. And while they’re a solid team against press defense, most of that success comes in transition (1.65 PPP) rather than in the half-court (.86 PPP).

Since Pitt is a slow-paced team (280th nationally in tempo) that can keep NC State out of transition (8.1 transition points per game allowed, 10th nationally), this game should be played in the half-court, ironically working against the Panthers’ favor.

I’m worried that Pitt will destroy NC State on the boards, generating endless second-chance points.

But if that happens, I’ll have to tip my cap and move on. The rest of the matchup favors the Pack, so I’ll take the points.

Pick: NC State +7 (Play to +5.5)

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